Thursday, April 7, 2016

The Process is Dead. Fuck the Process.

Sam Hinkie checking the job postings on craigslist

FIRST off, a correction. In the past, during my many writings about the plight of the Philadelphia 76ers, I have made mention of the fact that Sam Hinkie, Philadelphia’s GM and President of Basketball Operations, came to the Sixers from the San Antonio Spurs. In fact, he came over to Philadelphia from the Houston Rockets. The Lose regrets the error, and curses our crack staff of editors and fact checkers here at In Play Lose World HQ for being so lax.

And now we need another correction, because the previous statement is incorrect. Sam Hinkie is now the former GM and President of Basketball Operations for the Philadelphia 76ers. The Lose regrets that error as well. (Well, not really.) And now that we’ve done our duty and attempted to maintain our journalistic integrity, it’s time to trash his ass.

Sam Hinkie resigned on Wednesday, and now The Lose is wondering just what in the hell I’m going to write about now. Now that baseball season is upon us, there will be no shortage of lose, of course, particularly in the National League, where there are about six teams which look like they’re going to be absolutely dreadful, none more so than the San Diego Padres, who hosted the L.A. Dodgers for three games as Pet Food Park to open the season, lost all three, and got outscored 25-0 in the process. With this atrocious and truly hopeless opening salvo to the season, Padres GM A.J. Preller, who undertook the worst MLB offseason spending spree ever last year, has immediately leapt to the top spot in The Lose’s unofficial list I keep in my head called, “Guys Who You Wonder How They Have a Job in Pro Sports.” It’s an unofficial list with no set number of members. A good number of the list’s occupants have found themselves being laid off in the past year or so – Ruben Amaro, Jack Zduriencik, Billy King – and it’s not looking so good for some others – I’m looking at you, Byron Scott – but Preller has rapidly ascended the list, having charged to the top with such brazen managerial incompetence that it has most likely left the Padres doomed to suck for the next 5 years, if not longer. (And this is already the franchise with the worst overall winning percentage in MLB, so the bar for success here is set pretty low.) I know it’s early in the baseball season, but the Padres look hopeless and Preller has already shot into the #1 spot.

In part because the previous occupant of the #1 spot, Sam Hinkie, just resigned on Wednesday.

And to be clear here, I wish no ill will on any of these people. Folks losing their jobs suck. This is not some act of schadenfreude on my part. I have no ill will towards any of the terrible Pro Sports execs who I mentioned above. As I said before, what the hell am I going to write about now? Incompetence is good for The Lose business. It’s essential. Hinkie participated in a podcast with ESPN’s Zac Lowe this past Tuesday, which is worth a listen. He’s somewhat evasive and not particularly forthright in the interview, but given that he was obviously under some pressure (witness the fact that he resigned the very next day), you can certainly understand why. He seemed very bright and engaging and interesting, and I wish him nothing but the best from hereon out.

But having said all of that, you have to look at his body of work and wonder just how in the hell the ownership group in Philadelphia were dumb enough to a) hire this guy; and b) stick with him through three seasons so bad that Roget hasn’t found a synonym for ‘bad’ to describe just how bad it was. During Hinkie’s tenure, the 76ers’ record was 47-195. That’s a .194 winning percentage. The 76ers won on Tuesday night 107:93 over the corpse of the New Orleans Pelicans, a team whose five top scorers are injured and out for the season, thus raising their record to 10-68 and avoiding matching their club and NBA record for futility – the 1972-1973 76ers team that finished 9-73. After seeing their team lose 22 of its previous 23 games, the Sixers fans at Enormous Banking Conglomerate Center in Philadelphia were so giddy about this win that they chanted, “M-V-P! M-V-P!” in the direction of the game’s top scorer, serviceable journeyman forward and all-around good sport Carl Landry. (More on him in a moment.) When you start the season 1-30, and then go 1-22 later in the season, making it to the 10 win plateau counts as something of an accomplishment, I suppose.

It had gotten so bad in Philadelphia that earlier this year the organization hired former Suns and USA Basketball mastermind Jerry Colangelo as a ‘consultant.’ It has been suggested repeatedly that this was done at the behest of the league offices, because the NBA was embarrassed about the sorry state of the franchise – and, more to the point, the other 29 owners were outraged about the state of the 76ers, because what should be a marquee and lucrative franchise wasn’t generating the sorts of revenues it should be producing given that it had become such a laughingstock. And even though no one involved in the league could come right out and say it, what was going on in Philadelphia was clearly a case of an organization that was systematically tanking, trying to be as bad as possible in the hopes of gaming the system and improving its odds of winning the NBA draft lottery, hoping to somehow land a bona fide superstar. As I’ve said before, I hate the draft lottery and wish the league(s) would do away with it entirely, because it fundamentally provides a perverse incentive not to be successful – and when teams who have only a 1% of winning the lottery strike it rich, like the Chicago Bulls and the Cleveland Cavaliers have done, it only further legitimizes the strategy, because the 1% chance of winning the lottery that you get when you barely miss the playoffs is still better than the 0% chance you have if you’re the 8th seed and you’re playing the Dubs or the Cavs. For a league that has spent much of the past 30 years being hounded by accusations that games aren’t on the up-and-up – how did Mark Cuban put it? Oh, right, “Fuck you! Fuck you! Your game is rigged!” – the idea that one of your franchises is engaging in deliberately and systematically trying to fail doesn’t sit well in the corporate offices.

But it was pretty clear when Colangelo came on board that he wasn’t just a ‘consultant.’ In the 76ers pecking order, he was suddenly slotted above Hinkie, and reports indicate that Hinkie was going to be pushed even further down the totem pole in favor of Bryan Colangelo, the former GM of the Suns and the Raptors who happens to be Jerry’s son. He’s been named NBA Executive of the Year on two occasions, Bryan has, but his body of work as a whole as an NBA exec has been somewhat mixed. Quite bluntly, he wouldn’t be getting this job in Philly if his last name wasn’t Colangelo. Hinkie’s response to this impeding demotion was to pen a 13-page letter of resignation which is baffling and absolutely bizarre. (And for all disciples of In Play Lose, this is now officially required reading.) It reads like the opening of someone’s dissertation, rife with quotations and philosophical bents but lacking anything of substance.

And the substance is what’s at issue here. The substance is that the 76ers have won .194 of their games and so embarrassed the league that it’s looking into trying to rejig the lottery so as to somehow dissuade this kind of nonsense from ever happening again. They’ve attempted to game the system and its rules, running payrolls well below the salary floor and propping them up with zombie cap figures from contracts of players long since waived, running through endless numbers of players on endless numbers of 10-day contracts, and making trades for the express purpose of trying to make the team, as a whole, even worse than it was before. It’s at the end of that ludicrous letter that Hinkie tries to use his clearly superior mathematical skills to prove his point:

“In the upcoming May draft lottery, we have what will likely be the best ever odds to get the #1 overall pick (nearly 30%), a roughly 50/50 chance at a top-2 pick (the highest ever), and a roughly 50/50 chance at two top-5 picks, which would be the best lottery night haul ever. That same bounce of a ping pong ball (almost a flip of a coin) will determine if we have three first round picks this year (unusual) or four (unprecedented). That's this year.”

To Hinkie, all of the wheeling and dealing and horse trading has been, in essence, a math problem. That the 76ers could possibly wind up with four first round draft picks – their own plus three others (read here to try and make sense of it) – sounds really great, except for the fact that a large reason why the 76ers are 10-68 and still going through all of this mess is that, under Hinkie, they’ve drafted terribly. At some point you have to actually show that you’re capable of judging NBA talent.

We mentioned Carl Landry before, and he’s part of a “great” trade the 76ers made in the off-season. Knowing that the nitwit Sacramento Kings were desperate to free up cap space to try and sign some mediocre free agents, the 76ers agreed to take on Landry, Jason Thompson, and Nik Stauskas from the Kings. In exchange, the Kings agreed to give the 76ers rights to swap places in the draft with the Kings in 2017 and 2018. Everyone agrees in NBA circles that, for the Kings, this was a stupid trade. An absolutely stupid trade. You don’t give up swap rights to your picks when there is no guarantee you’re going to be any good. But the Kings, of course, have no idea what they’re doing and are run by a bunch of delusional weirdos, a good number of whom actually believed they’d contend for a playoff spot this year when all indications are that they’re likely to be dreadful for the foreseeable future. This wasn’t a good thing to give up, and so the early line on this was that the Sixers won the deal.

But you’re only going to “win” the deal if, in 2017 and 2018, your team is actually better than the Kings and you have something to swap! In the abstract, this deal may be a “win,” but it does absolutely nothing to help your team actually go about winning that deal by winning more games! Landry is basically there in Philly to be salary cap filler, Stauskas was already a bust in Sacto and the 76ers were simply taking a flyer on him, and Thompson was promptly traded to the Warriors for Gerald Green, another player the 76ers didn’t want but also one who basically can’t play any more, so they waived him and paid him $10,000,000 to go away and counted that 10 mil on their salary cap. This trade doesn’t count as a win, because nothing Sam Hinkie did here actually contributes to any improved performance on the floor.

And that’s where none of this works. All the back room procedural shit means nothing if it doesn’t result in wins. Wins! And simply promising it’s all going to get better some day doesn’t really cut it when what you have to show for 100 or so roster transactions is three good players on your team, and all you have to show from three drafts is the drafting of three centers, a point guard who can’t shoot, and a Slovenian guy with three years left on his contract in Turkey. There were some decent players in that 2014 draft. And sure, franchises whiff in the draft and miss on guys, but to come away with absolutely no useful players when you have two first round picks and you’re coming off a season in which you lost 26 games in a row is unforgivable.

This team was so young and so bereft of leadership this year that they finally had to relent and trade for Ish Smith to play the point – an unspectacular player but a safe pair of hands – and give up two of those precious draft assets to do so when they could have just signed him in the offseason in the first place. They wasted the third pick in the 2014 draft on Joel Embiid, who has missed two seasons with foot problems, and even if he comes back healthy next year, you now have all three of those centers still on your roster and nowhere on the floor to put them all, which means you’re going to have to move one of them and probably take a loss on the deal, because everyone knows you need to move one of them. Throw another four 20-year-olds out there – four 20-year-olds from what is shaping up to be not a great draft, by the way – and now the team is even younger and more raw and more inexperienced than before, and not likely to be any better, and it’s not a sure thing that they’ll ever get better, seeing as how there’s been no indication in three years that this team has any aptitude for developing players at all. But at least now, you can say that having all of these draft assets might bear some fruit, since it won’t be Hinkie doing the drafting.

But hey, we have cap space! Oh boy! Having cap space means little with the salary cap soaring in upcoming years. Everyone will have cap space then, free agents will be more able to choose than ever before, and as the Kings found out after making that dumb trade, having money to spend means nothing if your franchise is a toxic waste dump. No player worth his salt is going anywhere near Philly for years. The Colangelo family is going to have to do a lot of smoothing things over with the agents out there, a lot of whom Hinkie has pissed off, and the fact that he’s been systematically setting players up to fail for three years doesn’t make the organization look so good with the NBA rank-and-file. (Here’s a great story of how Kristaps Porzingis did basically everything possible to avoid being drafted by 76ers. He may be onto something there.)

Sam Hinkie clearly knows how to do the math, but he also clearly doesn’t have any eye or feel for NBA talent. Another thing he clearly knew how to do was spin a tall tale, since he somehow convinced the new ownership group in Philadelphia that he had some method and formula which would ultimately lead to great success. They’ve labeled this ‘the process’ in Philly, and if you read any Sixers fan message boards, it’s alarming to see just how many fans bought into this rubbish and drank the Sam Hinkie magical kool-aid, when it seemed pretty obvious from the get-go that it was a bad idea and was doomed to fail miserably. But P.T. Barnum was right. There really are suckers born every day. The 76ers have less resembled a functioning NBA team in the past three years and more resembled a combination of used car dealership and theatre of the absurd. If you actually bought into ‘the process,’ I hope that it also came with a year’s supply of snake oil. At least you only had to suffer through that for a year.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Better to have lost and been loved ...

This shot went in somehow

“The difference in college basketball between winning and losing is so small. The difference in your feelings is so large.”
– North Carolina coach Roy Williams


THE NCAA title game was terrific, which finals rarely are in any sport. Kris Jenkins’ buzzer-beater gave Villanova a 77:74 win over North Carolina, coming just 4.7 seconds after Carolina’s Marcus Paige tied the score with one of the most ridiculous shots I’ve ever seen. The Lose had no rooting interest in this game, as I appreciate both of their head coaches for insisting on still coaching offense and encouraging creativity through what has been an appallingly deadball era in the game, during which many supposed “genius” coaches have simply taken to trying to defensively suffocate the opposition. Calling Villanova an underdog is something of a stretch – they won a championship in 1985, have consistently been near to the top ever since, were ranked #1 in the polls for a bit this past season, and were ranked #1 in the nation by some of the statistical metrics – but it’s nice to see a relatively fresh face win the title and break the sport even more out of the stasis and predictability that was coming to stymie it. The final was a terrific game, well played and extremely competitive, and the denouement made it one of the sport’s more memorable acts. I’d have been happy to see them play another 5-10 minutes of OT, just because it was a great game. It truly was a shame someone had to lose.

The one-and-done nature of the NCAA tournament contributes greatly to it being the most dramatic endeavor in American sports. Losses can be so sudden and swift. In an instant, your season is over or, even more, your career is over, since a good number of the college kids involved will never play basketball at this sort of level again. That fact adds an element of cruelty to it all, since your last game is a loss and you almost certainly didn’t play your best game. The losses can certainly be traumatic. I don’t think that the DePaul basketball program has ever recovered from 1981, when they were ranked #1 in the nation and lost in the second round to a St. Joseph’s team so nondescript that the winning bucket was scored by a guy named John Smith. The iconic image from that game, captured and documented on film, is that of DePaul’s star, Mark Aguirre, clutching the ball tight to his chest in the aftermath, the tears rolling down his cheeks. I always rooted for him after that. I was happy when Aguirre got a ring with the Detroit Pistons later that decade.

And what’s all the more galling is that most of the time, you lose in the NCAA tournament because first and foremost, you didn’t shoot very well, and after you’ve spent much of the previous 22 years throwing a ball at a rim in gyms and on playgrounds and in the backyard, you’ve probably gotten pretty good at shooting the ball, only to have this fundamental skill of the game betray you at the worst time possible. Not playing your best, and not showing what you truly are capable of doing, adds to the disappointment.

With time comes perspective, of course, particularly if you were a player at a lesser school of whom nothing was expected. Reaching the NCAA tournament in the first place is the true accomplishment. The details of how you exited the tourney, in most cases, will disappear into the dustbin of history. Unless, of course, you lose the way North Carolina did last night, which condemns you to being part of the montage.

Television loves their montages of great buzzer beating moments in the NCAA – and they should love them, because the drama of the NCAA buzzer beater, and the explosion of emotions good and bad when it occurs, is like nothing else in sports. It makes for great TV. And so you can be sure that every March, from now on, you’re going to see a commercial or an opening montage in which Kris Jenkins hits a 25’ jumper at the buzzer. He’s joined the ranks of Bryce Drew and Lorenzo Charles and Rip Hamilton, immortalized in glory for their spectacular last-second NCAA exploit, whereas North Carolina now joins the ranks of Ole Miss and Houston and Washington (LOL Husky scum), in suffering the worst possible indignity of getting beat at the buzzer and now having to see that moment replayed again and again and again, over and over and over, ad infinitum, being reminded time and again how they failed on the biggest stage they’d ever stepped onto. This feels like a fate straight out of Greek tragedy, the repetitive nature of which is designed to slowly drive you insane. You definitely want to avoid the montage. (And for god’s sake, stay out of a documentary.)

CBS has compiled a nice montage of legendary NCAA moments which serves as the opener to their  telecasts, and one of those moments in particular resonates with me: the image of Gordon Hayward racing up the court with the ball in the dying seconds of the 2010 NCAA Championship Game between Butler and Duke. Hayward launches a stunning heave from half court …

… aaand thanks to a clever edit, you don’t see whether the shot goes in or not.

Go back for a moment to 2010. Here was Butler University, a well-respected educational institution in Indianapolis with a good basketballing tradition, but certainly not a great one, reaching the NCAA championship game – and that mere fact alone seemed unthinkable. But the Bulldogs were blessed with a coach, Brad Stevens, whose mind for the game and tactical acumen greatly exceeded the status of his program. Under his tutelage, several of his players had developed into legitimate NBA-caliber talents. Butler had snuck up on everybody, becoming really good when no one was paying attention, and over the course of the month of March 2010, Butler had become the ultimate NCAA Good Guys, champions of little guys everywhere, a triumph of hard work and tenacity and resourcefulness. And then it comes down to the final seconds, they’re down two with almost no time left, but Hayward has the ball and he’s their best player and he heaves it up from half court, and when it leaves his hand and you watch the rotation and trajectory of the shot and you think, “my god, that just might go in …”

… but it didn’t go in, of course, and Duke prevailed over Butler 61:59. Butler had become the ultimate NCAA Good Guys during the 2010 tournament, and they wound up losing to the NCAA tournament’s undisputed Public Enemy #1. Duke hates fun. Duke ruins your day. They’ve been ruining the narrative of the NCAA tournament for the better part of 25 years.

Duke won their first title in 1991, having pulled a stunning upset in the semifinal of an undefeated UNLV team which, player for player and play for play, was probably the best team we’ve seen in college basketball in the past 40 years. The following year, 1992, saw Duke defeat the Fab Five in the final, the Michigan team of Chris Webber and Jalen Rose and Juwan Howard whose five starters were all freshmen.

Duke’s third title, in 2001, changed the dynamic of the Final Four insofar as that what had once been a stale, neutral court environment ceased to be that way, because the Maryland fans were so angry about the Terrapins’ loss to Duke in the semis that they booed the Dookies constantly and mercilessly throughout the final game against Arizona. A narrative which has dogged the game for decades is “Duke gets all the calls,” and sure enough, the officials pointed Duke’s way at a few critical moments in the semifinal, as well as in the final against Arizona, as they seemingly always did. (This narrative conveniently leaves out the fact that Maryland blew a 23-point lead, of course.) A legitimate complaint about the game of college basketball over the years, in my opinion, is that the annoying and insufferable hero worship of the college basketball coach extends to the actions of the officials on the floor. Pit two teams against each other, one coached by a legend (which Coach K is), and another by an also-ran, and you can take a pretty good guess as to which team is going to get all of the 50-50 breaks from the zeebs. I don’t think there is any intentional malice in this, mind you. Referees are human and are affected by external forces, such as the sway of the crowd. This is why the home team generally gets the breaks from officials. As a player, you know this going in and you try to play through it, knowing that your team is going to get the breaks in your own gym. But when a team who “gets all the calls” seemingly “gets all the calls” all the way to winning a championship, the narrative and legacy it leaves behind is that it’s not a fair fight, it’s an unfair game.

Duke then beat Butler as mentioned above for Title #4, a stunning rebuke of little guys and romantics everywhere, and Title #5 came a year ago against a Wisconsin team that had defeated previously undefeated Kentucky in the semifinals. Kentucky had a chance to be the first team in the history of the game to go 40-0 in a season, a truly remarkable accomplishment, a stamp of ultimate greatness. Nope, sorry, instead we got Duke again.

Duke is no fun. Duke kills your dreams and stomps on your ideals. You should never invite Duke to the party. Duke ruins everything. They ruin a good narrative, they ruin a great story.

And ultimately, from the perspective of history, the narrative is what matters. A large part of the advancement of any sport is the selling of its legends. This gets completely tiresome during a baseball season, of course, because at some point in every single game you watch or listen to, someone involved in the broadcast feels a compulsion to retell some story of the team’s past. Cricket is even worse on that account. The game going on itself seems almost like an afterthought at times.  

“He bowled 65-3 when Australia was 187 all out during the first innings of the Ashes match at Lord’s in 1977, or was it ’78? … oh, and by the way, there’s two runs, and England are now 181 for 6 …  now where were we? Oh yes, it was 1978 ...”

In the case of those last two sports I mentioned, you wonder at times if there is anything at all to the sport but past narratives.

And since there is an international audience who reads this blog, a good number of whom probably know nothing about American college basketball, and care little about the plights of a bunch of 20-year old American college kids, I should probably use an analogy that the international audience can understand. If college basketball is soccer, then Duke are the Germans.

* * *

Johan Cruijff, Netherlands v. Uruguay, 1974 World Cup
“Football is played with the head.”
– Johan Cruijff


Johan Cruijff died just recently at the age of 68, and football and the world of sport are definitely the worse for it, as Cruijff was probably the most influential figure the sport has ever known. As a player, you’d have to rank him as the best European player ever. His prowess on the football pitch places him with the Peles and Maradonas and Messis of the world. He was that good.

But what makes him the most influential figure in the game is not only his skills on the pitch, but his success as a manager and executive. Cruijff was fundamental in the creation of the F.C. Barcelona style of play still prevalent today, and his greatest triumph came in the building of the Barca youth academy which has cranked out great players for decades, many of whom composed the core of that Spanish national team whose achievements rank it as among the best ever – winning the 2010 World Cup and Euros in 2008 and 2012, the only country to win three majors consecutively. Cruijff’s fingerprints are all over Spanish football, and he was the integral force in Dutch football, which had become something of a backwater pre-Cruijff, having not been to a World Cup in more than 30 years. Suddenly, seemingly out of nowhere, Ajax Amsterdam and Feijenoord were winning European silverware in the late 1960s and early 1970s, while Cruijff was busy winning three Ballon d’Ors. The Dutch had suddenly gone from being also-rans to international powerhouses, with Johan Cruijff leading the way.

And this Dutch success was not simply down to great talent, although Cruijff & Co. had plenty of that. (You don’t get a move named after you for nothing.) It was success based more in the way that the Dutch thought about the game. Cruijff’s most famous quote above (and there are many famous quotes to choose from), speaks to this. The Dutch played the game with their heads. They thought about it differently. There is a reason why there are so many Dutch coaches involved in the game on a worldwide level, as this approach has become pervasive over time. Cruijff was an innovator, a contrarian, rebellious by nature and willing to challenge the orthodoxy. He thought up ways of doing things on the pitch that no one had ever conceived of, and then went about doing them. Watch a great game of football today, and Cruijff’s influence is everywhere. Systems and tactics and techniques you take for granted were radical back in the early 1970s, when those crazy orange-clad guys straight out of Europe’s bastion of hippie counterculture were doing stuff on the pitch that no one had ever seen.

The World Cup final of 1974 is arguably the most talked about, most written about sporting event in the history of humanity. An entire bookshelf’s worth of literature has been written about that game: sports books, of course, but also books on sociology, philosophy, psychology and even history. The game had that much of a resonance. The game opens with a stunning sequence (just watch the first few minutes) in which the Dutch keep possession of the ball, systematically march down the field, and the first German to touch the ball at all is the goalkeeper who is picking it out of his own net. It’s the single most devastating foray that the game has ever seen, about three minutes worth of fury which provided a legitimacy and validation to all of Dutch football and serves as the foundation of their legacy as one of the greatest teams of all time.

And then they played the remaining 87 minutes of the match, and the Dutch proceeded to lose. One of the commonly repeated jokes about the 1974 World Cup final is that the Oranje did everything in that game except remember to score the second goal. The Dutch ultimately lost the World Cup final 2:1 to the hated Germans.

But to Cruijff, ever the contrarian, the Dutch had, in essence, “won” the World Cup. The Dutch of 1974 were memorable, after all. They were innovative, they were creative and exciting, whereas the Germans were a typically methodical, humorless, bland outfit that not even their own sporting public enjoyed all that much. After the 1974 World Cup was over, no coaches nor football managers were going to be attempting to replicate what the Germans were trying to do – but everyone wanted to figure out what the Dutch were doing and copy it, learn from it. That impact on the game, in the mind of Cruijff, was the true success.

An interesting notion, on Cruijff’s part. Certainly, it’s easy to be skeptical about such an attitude:

“Cruijff said afterwards, ‘We were very successful in a way because we were acclaimed for our style and everybody said we we were the best team.’ But it deflected attention away from the failure. Over the years it became an excuse. The Dutch thing became beautiful losing. It became a national brand in their football. But that’s not how it was pre-’74. The guys who played in that team were used to winning and Rinus Michels invented Total Football not as a way of making beautiful patterns on the field but as a way of winning. The Ajax team that were European champions three years running were much better than everyone else and won. That was the plan for 1974. Holland weren’t there to make up the numbers and finish second and get acclaimed for their loveliness and their open-mindedness and their philosophical nature. They were there to win. So it was one thing before July 7, 1974, and then afterwards it was kind of retooled and reimagined as, ‘actually, we succeeded anyway.’ But they didn’t. It was a failure. But a success in other ways. It was always a prickly thing that you couldn’t come to terms with or move on from. It was an unresolved trauma. The beauty and achievement was creating a wonderful brand of football.”
– David Winner, author of “Brilliant Orange: The Neurotic Genius of Dutch Soccer”

Certainly, the idea of losing elegantly seems to be inherent to Dutch soccer. The Oranje have lost three World Cup finals. A fourth team, in 1998, was the best team in the tourney yet somehow contrived to lose on penalties in the semis after drawing 1:1 with Brazil in a game they totally dominated, squandering chance after chance after chance. But it’s never been a case of simply winning or losing for the Dutch. They have to look good doing it, a fact which is often written into national team manager’s contracts. The Dutch were heavily criticized for taking a cynical, clinical approach to the 2010 final with Spain, often resorting to playing the man instead of the ball while conniving to create a counterattack opportunity. Never mind, of course, that it was probably the right approach given the opponent, and had Robben not blown his breakaway opportunity, the tactics would have worked. At some point, you should really stop trying to look good and start trying to win the game, don’t you think? You can claim all you want that the results don’t matter, but it’s still a results oriented business:

“The virtuous Dutch against the ugly Germans? I don’t think that works any more. Replaying the war? I don’t think that really works. What happened was they took so long to face the problem directly. The first reaction was ‘Oh, it doesn’t matter.’ They had a party when they came home. They had a reception with the Queen and it was as if they were rehearsing for all the future disappointments. But their feelings were very raw. They pretended they were satisfied sometimes. Knowing that they were the best and that they came up with this completely new way of playing football which was better than everyone else’s – that was a part of it. It wasn’t okay to come second. It was an enduring pain. And it happened again in 1978 and happened again in a slightly different way in 1998 when the best team should’ve won it. Dennis Bergkamp – an embodiment of the mentality that disasters aren’t that disastrous and the joys aren’t that joyful he’s still haunted by 1998, which was his generation’s 1974. Holland should’ve won. They were the best team. They were the team the French didn’t want to play in the final. They were better than the Brazilians and yet they failed. And it nags at him, but he can’t do anything about it some 16 years later. It’s too late. You can’t replay the game. It’s that moment: you had to take your chance and you didn’t. That’s why it lingers and gnaws away. And because a World Cup comes around every four years, it’s not like a Champions League or a league title. It’s once in a lifetime and that’s why it hurts.”
– David Winner


I get all of that, and I agree to an extent, yet Cruijff has a point. History is complicated. Nixon once quipped that history would judge him favorably, yet historians wouldn’t. One of the more laughably stupid themes of the entire Deflategate kerfuffle is the idea that it would somehow taint Tom Brady and the New England Patriots’ legacy. Guess what? In the moment, you don’t give a damn about your legacy. You give a damn about winning. How you are perceived and remembered in the future isn’t up to you. Your legacy gets determined for you, and sometimes it has nothing to do with results. A large part of Barca’s successes, and the successes of Spanish football as a whole, trace back to the expat Dutchman who steered the club for decades, yet Cruijff’s legacy, first and foremost, is defined by having captained and led the side who were the purveyors of the game’s most storied failure.

“I’m ex-player, ex-technical director, ex-coach, ex-manager, ex-honorary president. A nice list that once again shows that everything comes to an end.”
– Johann Cruijff


* * *

And what we’ve seen time and again, over the history of sport, is that it’s not the winners who we most fondly remember – but, in fact, it’s those who come up short who are far more beloved than those who prevail.

Which is not to say that champions aren’t revered. The ’27 Yankees, ’85 Bears and ’96 Bulls are among the most revered and legendary teams of all-time. As the Warriors have been chasing down some of those records set by the ’96 Bulls, it’s been met with a somewhat astonishing backlash from basketball old-timers, all of whom seem to think that the game is somehow played in a vacuum and that you could stick the ’96 Bulls and 2016 Warriors on the court and the Bulls would somehow prevail. This is, quite frankly, completely idiotic, as the game has changed in 20 years, the schemes are far more sophisticated and the skill sets far more developed. Everything that you do in the present gets learned from and improved upon in the future. The Warriors would wipe the floor with the Bulls, and the San Antonio Spurs would do the same, for that matter, but the Dubs are messing with history here, you see, and I’ve found it rather amusing to see the Warriors transitioning from being perceived as heroes to villains, when as far as I can tell, all they’ve been doing is going out and winning basketball games at a slightly more frequent rate this season than last.

But the Dubs are a good example to point out here, since their cutting-edge style of play is directly drawn from that of one of the most beloved teams in recent NBA history, the Seven Seconds Or Less Phoenix Suns, who were the greatest show in the game from 2004-2008 and who revolutionized the game of basketball … and who couldn’t win an NBA title. It’s in this article about the Suns where Bill Simmons and Chris Connelly float an idea which I’m vamping on in this post, that of being ‘critically acclaimed’ and thus lovable even though the success wasn’t ultimately there. Notice how the 1974 Oranje are high on that list of critically acclaimed athletes and teams, as are the Fab Five and we’ll get back to them in a minute, and also a team near and dear to my heart, the Loyola Marymount team from the turn of the ’90s who routinely scored 140 or 150 points in a game and whose best player, Hank Gathers, dropped dead in the middle of a game. (It still makes me sad to think about this.) Loyola Marymount played their hearts out in the 1990 NCAA tourney without him and reached the final eight, only to be crushed by UNLV, and LMU coach Paul Westhead – an English professor as well as a coach – was remarkably philosophical about it all. The winning and the losing in the NCAA tournament ultimately didn’t matter all that much, in a greater context. Hank Gathers had died and eventually you’d have to come to terms with it. There were never going to be enough games to hide behind. Had they won the whole tournament, they still would have their day of reckoning where they came to grips with Gathers being gone. In the end, Loyola Marymount made many friends simply through their inspired play in the most unimaginable of circumstances, and it was how they carried themselves through difficult times, and in defeat, which said more about them than any actual result on the court.

Indeed, one of the reasons why Duke has become reviled over time is the perception that they are sore winners, that they are elitists possessing a sense of entitlement. They also usually have some sneaky little shithead on their team, be it Christian Laettner or J.J. Reddick or Grayson Allen, who thrives upon antagonizing the opposition and who occasionally resort to dirty tricks in order to do it. This narrative isn’t entirely fair, of course. Duke reached the championship game in 1990, the year before their first title, and they were absolutely annihilated 103:73 by UNLV, a humbling beatdown if there ever was one. For all of his titles over the years, Coach K’s best team of all was one that didn’t actually win the title, the 1999 team which lost in the final to Connecticut, a program which is equally successful and equally obnoxious, if not more so. That ’99 Duke team was ranked #1 almost the entire season, didn’t play anywhere near their best game in the final, and still only lost by three to UConn in a game that went to the buzzer, at which point they were forced to show a shocking humility and grace seemingly unbecoming of the program.

But that happens, of course. It’s in defeat that you see that humanity come out. The most ruthless killing machine of sport in my time on this earth – the Soviet hockey team – lost a game to the U.S. at the Lake Placid Olympics in 1980, and what was stunning about it was just how human they suddenly seemed. The coach made a bad decision – yanking his goaltender, Vladislav Tretiak, in a fit of rage after the first period – the players began to make inexplicable errors, and they tightened up once the momentum had shifted the Americans’ way. (Several great documentaries have been made about this team, Of Miracles and Men and Red Army.) The Duke documentary that I mentioned earlier chronicles the so-called ‘Laettner Game,’ Duke’s 104:103 OT win over Kentucky in the 1992 NCAA East Regional final that is considered by many to be the greatest college basketball game of all time – and given the pedigree, and somewhat dubious history, anything that can wind up with both Rick Pitino and Kentucky portrayed in a sympathetic light is noteworthy, but Kentucky were nothing less than gallant in defeat on that particular day.

And for the record, that’s not the greatest college basketball game ever played. It’s the second-best game ever played. This is the best game ever played, #2 NC State beating #1 Maryland 103:100 in OT in the 1974 ACC championship. Maryland had six future NBA players on their team, shot 61% and lost. It’s a game which changed college basketball forever, since this was the #1 and #2 teams in the country essentially playing a loser-out game, since back then only the conference champions got to go to the NCAA tourney. The NCAA tourney then began to expand the following year, since it seemed ridiculous to leave a team like Maryland out of the field. Interestingly, Maryland declined an invitation to the NIT that year, deciding to let their great season come to an end:

“Why risk losing to an inferior team just because we didn't come to play? Then our legacy is destroyed. In the end, I think we were vindicated by the fact that when they  (N.C. State) were asked who the best team was that they played, and they said it was us.”
– Len Elmore, Maryland center


And after Duke beat Kentucky in that Laettner game, they went on to win the national championship against Michigan, aka The Fab Five, one of the most groundbreaking teams in sports. It seemed nuts for Michigan to start five freshmen at once, but The Fab Five changed the game of college basketball with their style and their swagger – a style and swagger which occasionally masked what made them successful on the court, which was a high IQ game and a group of five who played wonderfully together as a team. After losing to Duke in the 1992 final as freshmen, the Fab Five returned to the final as sophomores, only to lose 77:71 to North Carolina in 1993. The pivotal moment of the game came when, down a bucket in the closing stages, Michigan’s Chris Webber called a timeout that his team didn’t have. It was a brain cramp, pure and simple, but far too many Fab Five-haters, many of whom trawled and trolled as hero-coach worshipping journalists, chortled it up in the aftermath, hailing Michigan’s loss to a Dean Smith-coached Carolina as a triumph of substance over style, which was utter nonsense. And with that loss came the end of the Fab Five: Webber jumped to the NBA immediately, and it was later revealed that there had been improprieties involving a Michigan booster, so all of the Fab Five’s achievements were officially stricken from the record books. They vanished almost as quickly as they had arisen. There is almost a James Dean, Rebel Without a Cause sort of quality to the Fab Five which has made their fleeting success seem almost larger than life.

And who even remembers that North Carolina team from 1993? Name me one guy who played in that final who was wearing powder blue? Winners are surprisingly unmemorable a lot of the time. This is because winners, in fact, tend to play it safe. They aren’t groundbreakers or revolutionaries. They tend to fall in line with orthodoxy and convention.

Memorable losers like The Fab Five, or the SSOL Suns or the Clockwork Oranje, do things differently. They have different approaches and different ideas. The phrase ‘ahead of their time’ has become a cliché for a reason. People around the NBA didn’t think it was possible for a team like the Suns to win the title – only to see, seven years later, the Golden State Warriors play in much the same manner and do exactly that. You may lose in the moment, but Johan Cruijff was right: in the long run, if you’re memorable, you’re the ultimate winner.

Which is why, when I see the opening NCAA montage, and see Butler’s Gordon Hayward launching it from half-court in the dying seconds, you don’t have to see whether or not the ball goes in the basket. It doesn’t matter whether it did or not. By simply getting to that point, Butler were the winners. In the long run, the actual outcome of the game only matters to a select few. They promptly undid their hipster indie credit the following year, reaching the title game yet again and then losing to Connecticut 54:41 in what was, quite simply, the worst basketball game that I have ever seen. The two teams combined to shoot .261 from the floor in the game, missing 88 shots between them. Yeech! At that point, Butler were no longer lovable losers. They were just bad. Their time had run its course. But in that first finals loss against Duke, Butler captured imagination, they excited minds and they showed what was possible. It’s better to have been loved, and lost, than never to have lost at all.

We need narrative, we need myths and legends to maintain our interest. And those who come before us and who fail ultimately move us forward, as we attempt to improve in the areas where they came up short. Copying what winners do, ultimately, simply muddies the waters, because everyone does it and the end result is a suffocating sameness and staleness. Great ideas come from everywhere, but the execution of those ideas is often longer in coming. If we didn’t have legendary and lovable losers, we’d lose a great deal of the texture and context. Success changes that narrative, of course: in two cases in baseball, long-suffering franchises have recently become big winners, with the Red Sox and Giants each winning three World Series after going more than a half-century without winning any. You may shed that lovable loser tag at that point – I can look forward to reading about “arrogant and entitled Giants fans” on message boards now, as we march towards yet another Giants even year bullshit pennant – but that legacy of failure makes success all the more sweet, and the stories of how you came to fail, just like all good narratives, are bound to just get better and better (and funnier and funnier) as you get older, aging like a fine, fine wine.

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

The Choke

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

TEXAS A&M’S Alex Caruso missed a 3-point shot with 36 seconds remaining in the NCAA second round game between Northern Iowa and Texas A&M on Sunday in Oklahoma City. Northern Iowa was leading 69-57 at the time, and Caruso’s missed trey seemed to be their last faint gasp, as Northern Iowa’s win percentage was calculated to be 99.99% in that moment. A&M’s Admon Gilder rebounded the miss, however, and scored a put-back bucket with :34 on the clock, cutting the lead to 69-59, but the needle barely moved. UNI was still 99.96% to win at that moment.

And then this happened:


What the actual fuck?

Texas A&M wound up winning the game 92:88 in 2OT. Improbable? Impossible? A miracle? There really are no words to describe this. You have to see it to believe it. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the greatest choke we may ever see in our lifetimes.

To give you some idea of the magnitude of this collapse, let’s use another recent shocking late-game turn – Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots and the Seahawks. When Seattle found themselves with 2nd down on the Patriots 1-yard line in the closing minute, the Seahawks possessed an 87.4% chance of winning the game. The Hawks’ chances plummeted to 0.4% when they didn’t run the damn ball, and Malcolm Butler picked off the pass at the goal line. (About the only way you could have a bigger swing in an NFL game would be a chip shot FG blocked and run back for a TD on the last play of the game.) Somewhat of an apples-to-oranges comparison, of course, given that we’re talking about different games with different variables, but the point is that, percentage wise, UNI’s collapse is even more unthinkable. 538.com suggests A&M was about a 3000-1 bet to win the game at that point, having not found a comeback of the sort anywhere in college basketball in at least the past four seasons. (If I put a $100 on A&M to rally last weekend, and another $100 on 5000-1 Leicester to win the EPL last summer, I’d be retired and living in Tahiti already.)

This game capped off four days of utter NCAA nuttiness the likes of which we’ve scarcely seen. I’d basically given up on college basketball after last season, since the on-court look of the game was so bad. The new rule changes shortening the shot clock and adjusting the geometry of the court to create more space have had a positive impact on the quality of play.

One of the comments I heard quite a bit about the new rules was that, come tournament time, you’d be less likely to see the sorts of big upsets you’ve seen in the past, the theory being that most of those upsets occur through smaller schools with lesser talent playing entirely half-court games consisting of holding the ball for longer and reducing the number of possessions in the game.

This year’s NCAA tourney showed that to be utter nonsense. Upsets were everywhere in the first two days. Friday saw a 15-seed, 14-seed, and 13-seed all win – the first time that’s ever occurred on a single day of the tourney – including the most humdinging, bracket-busting upset of all time: 15-seed Middle Tennessee State’s 90:81 win over Michigan State. There’ve been eight 15-over-2’s in the history of the tourney, but this one was different: Michigan State was, in essence, the fifth #1 seed in this tourney, and were shocked to find themselves slated as a #2 going in. The Spartans, at 11-2 odds, were second favorites in Vegas to win the whole thing behind Kansas. Sparty was a 17½-point favorite going into this game, and the Blue Raiders from Murfreesboro were getting as much as +$2200 straight up from the Vegas sports books.

And all it took was watching the Blue Raiders jump out to an apropos 15-2 lead at the outset of the game to make you realize that the NCAA Selection Committee had gotten it horribly wrong. Middle Tennessee was clearly underrated. Upsets of the 15-over-2 variety in the tourney tend to be the product of the committee bumbling the selections, either placing an overrated team at #2 or an underrated team at #15, or it’s the case where the #15 team has some great player on their team who goes off: I very much remember 1993, when 2-seed Arizona got ousted by Santa Clara, a game I had interest in since I knew one of the Santa Clara players, and Santa Clara had a freshman point guard by the name of Steve Nash who was kinda good. Another example of this is Lehigh’s C.J. McCollum, now of the Portland Trail Blazers, going off for 30 against Duke in 2012.

And this year’s rule changes may have, in fact, contributed to leveling the playing field more than first thought, simply because everyone is trying to adjust to new rules and trying to figure out how to play. You can play neither offense nor defense in the quite the same way as before. Indeed, the field was the losingest in the tournament’s history, with more combined losses among the 68 entrants than ever before, thus suggesting a far more level playing field. The committee took more heat than the norm for the field they selected for this year’s tourney, but given how parity appears to be reigning and everyone seems to be about equal, how in the hell are you supposed to differentiate? And though a fair number of blue bloods from power conferences wound up reaching the Sweet 16, teams like Kentucky and Michigan State did not, and many more of them had the bejeezus scared out of them. Across the first week of the NCAA tourney, the overall quality of play was generally better than what I’d seen a year ago, and more importantly, the drama was better than ever. And that’s what’s most important in the end. We love the drama and absurdist theatre of the NCAA tournament. The kids don’t always play well, but they play their hearts out. Inspired comebacks, clutch shots, overtimes, buzzer beaters (or, in the case of Cincinnati, beater buzzers), weird schools you’ve never heard us from places like Nacogdoches, Texas, seemingly doing the impossible, strange twists and turns and unpredictable results. It’s all great stuff. It’s why we watch the tournament, and why we watch sports at all. Sports are life’s original reality TV.

And then Northern Iowa had to go and make us basically forget all of what we’d just seen by pulling off the most incomprehensible of chokes. The Panthers from Cedar Falls had already had a pretty memorable couple of weeks. That they were in the tourney at all was due to this wild and bouncy buzzer beater in the MVC championship game in St. Louis against the Orange Purple Aces of Evansville (who were wearing orange, for some reason). UNI then pulled off the most miraculous of results against Texas in the first round, as the Panthers’ Paul Jesperson did some Steph things at the buzzer, sinking a 50-footer to give them an improbable 75:72 win. But UNI is known as a “mid-major” program in NCAA-speak: not one of the élite, but certainly not a nobody. The Missouri Valley Conference is a highly competitive and well-respected league, and Northern Iowa has made four trips to the NCAA tourney in the past six years, first coming into the collective sports consciousness six years ago when they went about torching and torturing #1 Kansas in the second round of the tournament. This is a team that knows what they’re doing – or should’ve known what they were doing, I should say. Indeed, as was pointed out in The Washington Post, had Northern Iowa done any of these 14 13 things instead of what they did on Sunday, they likely would’ve won the game. What you have instead is an absolute disaster.

 Oh, I’m sorry, I meant to say that what you have is an act of God.

“Glory be to God … they were blessed the other night, and we were blessed tonight.”
– Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy, when asked right after the game the Aggies’ victory.


Oh, fuck right off.

Let me just get this off my chest here. I don’t give a shit what religion you are. I don’t. Believe whatever you want to believe, and permit me to do the same. But don’t give me this bullshit about how you won because you were ‘blessed.’ I hate it when athletes say that sort of stuff. Fuck that shit. Quite honestly, I wouldn’t know why God would give a damn about a basketball game. The outcome is not divinely determined. It’s determined by human beings making plays – and also making mistakes. Also, to say that UNI were ‘blessed’ the other night also implies that they were just lucky and is disrespectful. Sure, they were fortunate a 50-footer went in the basket, but they were good enough to be in a position to win that game. Saying stuff like this just makes me want to hate you for being completely ignorant. Here’s to hoping you have to go and pray over why it is Oklahoma thumps your ass this coming Thursday in Anaheim.

But I digress. In the 100 years or so that I’ve been watching college basketball, I cannot ever recall seeing a comeback like this. Certainly, the game has changed over that time – but a lot of those changes didn’t really come into play in this instance, save for the fact that the clock stops after a made bucket in the final 2:00 of the game, which wasn’t always the case. The 3-point shot aids your attempt at a comeback, of course – but Texas A&M only made one such shot in this rally. The advent of the double-bonus on college hoops took away one path to a rally, in that in the past, when every foul in the bonus was a 1-and-1, the strategy you employed during a rally was simply to force the other team to throw it to their worst foul shooter, at which point you fouled the hell out of him and hoped he’d miss the front end of the 1-and-1. But again, free throws didn’t matter here – UNI shot no free throws at all in the final :30 of this game, their only points coming on a breakaway dunk after a long in-bounds pass, which was about the only thing the Panthers did right. Otherwise, it was mistake after mistake after mistake:


And here, we also have to give some praise to Texas A&M for a bit of creative strategy and some out-of-the-box thinking, which is the sort of thing you need in times of desperation. If you remember back to Super Bowl XLIX (and how I can ever forget?), you may recall the endgame situation: Pats up four, Seahawks on the Pats 5-yard line, and both teams have one timeout left, final few moments of the game. The Seahawks carry the ball to the Pats 1-yard line on first down, and conventional wisdom dictates that New England should call timeout to save some seconds for their offense in case Seattle scores. Even so, this is a completely dire situation for New England. So what does Belichick do? He doesn’t call the timeout, because a stopped clock would be an ally of the Seahawks, who are still losing the game. So now what do the Seahawks do? By not calling the timeout, and putting the onus on the Seahawks to manage the clock, the Pats are then able to take an educated guess as to what will happen: the Seahawks will likely have to pass on 2nd down, since an incompletion would stop the clock and it would save the timeout. Sure enough, the Seahawks do exactly that, the Pats play pass defense and recognize the formation, Butler jumps the pass route and makes the interception. It’s still somewhat miraculous, but Belichick had at least positioned his team for the possibility of a miracle to occur.

OK, so let’s apply some game theory here to the final moments in Oklahoma City. Texas A&M is down 10 points after Gilder’s layup with :34 left, but the clock is now stopped. Conventional basketball wisdom here is that you deny like hell the inbounds pass and try to force a 5-second call or a bad inbounds pass (which did happen once in this sequence), and if that doesn’t work, then you immediately foul and concede two free throws in exchange for stopping the clock. But there is a second school of thought about this, which is that rather than immediately fouling whomever receives the first pass, you immediately trap him and then foul on the second pass. You want to try to steal the inbounds pass, of course, but failing that, the goal is to force them into a bad area of the floor – the corner, along the baseline – double-team the ball and use the boundary of the court as a third defender. Now, there is nothing all that unremarkable about this strategy in and of itself, and teams are well-drilled in learning how to break the press. And it doesn’t make much sense, in a predicament such as A&M found themselves in, to be letting the seconds tick away when time is of the essence.

Except that it really doesn’t make a difference whether the time is ticking away as you trap in the backcourt or if you’re bringing the ball up the floor after the free throws, the most likely result of which being that you’re even further behind. You’re fighting on multiple fronts here. You’re fighting the clock, but you’re also fighting the score. You have to score as quickly as possible when you get the ball, and in this instance, that time is better spent trying to get the ball back nearer to the opponent’s basket than it is taking it out of bounds 94 feet away.

But more importantly, in choosing not to immediately foul, you have the element of surprise on your side, because the other team’s players expect to be fouled. Not doing so increases volatility and can also increase the potential for unusual or unlikely to occur.

In fact, this very scenario unfolded in Oklahoma City two weeks previously during the NBA game between the Zombies and the Golden State Warriors, a 121:118 OT win for Golden State that was the best game of this season, and just about any other season for that matter. Golden State trails by four points with :14 remaining in regulation, Klay Thompson drives for a layup to cut it to two with :10 left, OKC then immediately inbounds to Kevin Durant like they want to do since he’s an 89% free throw shooter – but the Warriors don’t foul. They trap Durant along the baseline and catch the Zombies by surprise. Durant & Co. stop moving, stop trying to get open, and even forget they have a timeout left. Durant tries a crazy diagonal cross-court pass which the Warriors knock free and steal, and now it’s a scramble drill and the Zombies are in a mess. They’re all over the place and commit a foul, and two Warrior free throws force the OT. And this is Kevin Durant we’re talking about here, one of the best and smartest basketball players on the planet. An unexpected approach by the Warriors leads to a moment of madness, an unexpected rush of blood to the head.

And indeed, part of the problem for Northern Iowa in this instance is that when the expected foul doesn’t come, they forget what to do. Go back and watch this again. They stop moving, the guy with the ball panics, they’re trapped in terrible areas of the floor and twice they resort of trying to throw the ball off defender’s legs and out of bounds, but the alert Aggies step away from the trouble and make the steal. And with each successive turnover, the A&M belief grows, the UNI panic further settles in, the frenzy builds and then it snowballs into a full-blown avalanche.

Even so, this is all low-percentage stuff – but if you’re A&M, you’re looking at the no-percentage stuff of not playing any more games, so you may as well try everything. And even with all of this effort from A&M, it got them no better than being tied. They still had to play the overtime, but Northern Iowa messed that up as well, screwing up their final possession in the first OT with the game tied and settling for yet another Jesperson heave-ho from mid-court. Foul trouble attrition then settled in during the second extra session, as it often does in such extended games, and the Aggies were able to wear UNI out with their superior depth. But even though the outcome was still somewhat in doubt well into the second OT, you just sort of knew that the Panthers had blown it and they would eventually succumb. All the announcers could say during the 2nd OT, again and again, were words along the lines of, “I can’t believe what we witnessed at the end of regulation.”

It’s an appalling meltdown, and you feel bad for the kids involved, all of whom had played great to get their team in that position in the first place. We take life lessons from losing, of course, but losing in the NCAAs is particularly bitter in that the losses aren’t necessarily applied again to playing the game: graduating seniors move into other life phases, don’t necessary continue to play, and the vast majority of them certainly never play at this high of a level again.

The biggest takeaway from that, as it turns out, is that most of us are going to lose the last game we play. Winning championships is rare. Going out on top is almost nonexistent. And when you’re an underdog in the NCAA tournament, I think you’d almost rather be blown out by 30. Being blown out by 30 sucks in the immediate aftermath, of course, but you’re able to divorce yourself from it over time and look at the bigger picture: losing in the NCAA tourney was, in fact, a reward for doing so many other things right. And the humor of it all sets in at that point. You got blown out by 30 and you probably deserved it, but at least you had a helluva good time along the way.

But what do you pull from a loss like this one? Don’t choke? Well, yeah, no shit. But is there a lesson or a moral victory to be found in this anywhere? Anywhere? I don’t know what to say. I got nothin’ on this one. Words are completely failing me.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Fleet Foxes

Sweet!

THANKS to Shinji Okazaki’s brilliant overhead kick, Leicester City defeated Newcastle United 1:0 on Monday evening. The win brought the Foxes to 63 points with eight games remaining in the EPL season, five points clear of 2nd-place Tottenham Hotspur and 11 ahead of 3rd-place Arsenal and ESPN’s SPI now lists the Foxes as being 73% favorites to win the title.

To put that into some perspective, at this time a season ago, Leicester City were dead last in the EPL and staring at relegation. Only a seemingly miraculous late season run salvaged the club, as the Foxes won seven of their last nine matches to save themselves in 2015. Even so, the Foxes were assumed to be a relegation candidate this season. They were picked to finish dead last, or near to it, by virtually every single pundit and sports journalist in the U.K., and had the longest odds of any of the 20 league clubs at the start of the year, with the bookies offering 5000-1 on Leicester to win the title. (Even the Philadelphia 76ers had better odds on winning the NBA title.)

And it isn’t as if they had a whole lot of takers. The British press has now put in considerable effort beating the bushes in search of people who willingly tossed £5 or £10 down on Leicester back in the summer. It’s one of those dumb sorts of bets you might make just for the hell of it with the loose change jangling about in your pockets. Bookies love those sorts of bets. It’s easy money. If the Foxes can hang on for eight more games, and win the championship in the most popular sports league on earth, it will go down as probably the biggest upset in the history of sport.

Oh sure, there has been a one-off prizefight here and there where the underdog channeled their inner Rocky Balboa and sprung a big upset, but you’re talking about the EPL here, the longest and one of the most rigorous campaigns in sport. The EPL season is 10 months long, and unlike other European leagues, they take no winter break. Most countries have one domestic cup competition, but in England they have two, so if you’re progressing in the tourneys, the fixture backlog can get completely ridiculous. (Liverpool was playing two games a week for the better part of two months, as they juggled three different tournaments.) With injuries and depth issues and mid-season transfers, a squad can come to look and play, by the end of the season, absolutely nothing like they looked and played at the beginning. To win, therefore, takes sustained excellence, which makes a scrub club like Leicester’s achievements truly impressive.

And this is good for the game. It’s good for a sport which has become predictable to the point of being stale. This past weekend, Paris St.-Germain defeated Troyes 9:0 – yes, that’s 9:0 – to clinch the French Ligue 1 championship with eight games to go. Barcelona has a 30+ game unbeaten streak going, and are now well on their way to winning in Spain, while Bayern Munich and Juventus went on their inevitable long winning streaks to win their inevitable championships yet again in Germany and Italy, respectively. After a bit of early season upheaval, the old guard have reestablished themselves and the season is playing out like it usually does. Big money rules the roost in soccer, where great talent doesn’t come cheap. As the season has progressed, all of the big clubs, with their big wage bills and big financial backing, have taken their rightful and predictable places at the tops of the tables.

Except in England, where apparently everyone showed up drunk, and everything has gone mad.  Manchester City fielded the first £300 million side in history earlier this season, but you’d think that for £300 million you could afford more than one quality center back. The Citizens sleepwalked their way through a goalless draw with Norwich this past weekend that pretty much killed whatever chances remained of winning the title. Meanwhile, Manchester United salvaged a scrappy 1:1 draw in the FA Cup with West Ham United over the weekend, but since when does Man U have to be scrappy? Manchester United has a £200 million wage bill, and the club made £190 million in jersey sales alone in 2015. Two other big spenders were taking part in the FA cup over the weekend as well, with perpetually flaky Arsenal getting beat by Watford (who was trawling in Div. 2 a year ago), while Chelsea was busy getting whomped by Everton, which was newsworthy insofar as that it wasn’t really an upset at all. Everton aren’t a small club by any means, but they’re probably a better team than Chelsea at the moment and are constructed for about half of the cost, and they’re spearheaded by striker Romelu Lukaku, who Chelsea gave up on. EPL clubs spent over £1 billion this year acquiring players, and a whole lot of that is looking like it was money very badly spent.

But Leicester City just keeps on winning and it’s awesome. It’s totally awesome. And you should root for Leicester City. Everyone should root for Leicester City. The Foxes are, quite simply, turning the sport on its head. And as a purveyor of Lose, and a regular fan of a similar sort of club, I simply have no choice but to wholeheartedly back the Foxes for the remainder of the season. Not only is Leicester City’s potential triumph in the EPL a chance to stick it to the man, but there is a possibility that business as usual in the EPL may never be usual again.

There is essentially a caste system in the sport, one which has been established over 100+ years. There is a hierarchy and a pecking order. There are 92 clubs in the four professional leagues in England, with hundreds of more clubs in the levels below that, and every club comes to find some sort of a comfort zone for itself. As much as the local fans of some collection of Division 4 duffers would like to see their club somehow rise to greatness, it doesn’t wind up working that way. I recommend everyone read The Miracle of Castel di Sangro, Joe McGinniss’ wonderful book chronicling a backwater Italian club rising to the second division. The club is completely out of its depth once it reaches Serie B – and, in fact, no one involved in the operation of the club has any real interest in seeing them succeed at that level, since doing so would require a substantial financial investment. The ownership is perfectly content with Serie C mediocrity, and trying to compete at the Serie B level is a burden and also something of an annoyance. Being successful on the pitch gets in the way of being profitable off of it.

Leicester are one of the great yo-yo clubs of British football. They’ve won the second division seven times in their 130-year history, more than any other club – which means, of course, that they also get relegated a lot. They go up, they go down, they go up again. There is a whole group of clubs who do this sort of thing (with my beloved Norwich City being one of them) Some simply rise to the top level, cash the big EPL cheques, spend very little money and drop back down to The Championship (aka Div. 2), using a year or two of EPL windfall as a nice budget for the club. (The current Div. 2 leaders, Burnley, employed precisely that strategy a season ago.) Some clubs, meanwhile, go all gung-ho when they arrive in the EPL, rife with delusions of grandeur and glory, deciding that they need to pony up and spend like the big clubs – which can be disastrous if you do it wrong. Fairly regular EPL yo-yos Bolton Wanderers went all-in and got it all wrong: they are now saddled with £180 million in debt, verging on bankruptcy and sitting dead last in the second division, having been forced to sell players and having had no money to buy quality replacements. The yo-yo clubs like Leicester and Norwich, like Wolves and Hull City and the sort, have generally placed their emphasis on talent development over the years, and have maintained policies of zero sentimentality when it comes to selling off players. There have been quite a few great players over the years who’ve donned the Foxes’ blue jerseys, but usually they were simply passing through on their way to bigger and better things.

And with modest means and modest results come modest expectations. A 50-point EPL season and maybe a nice cup run constitutes a successful season. You temper your hopes and you redefine success. Winning seven second divisions at Leicester, while definitely a step down from the big time, has still contributed to a creation of culture and tradition at the club. Some of the game’s best and most ardent fan support lies within those loyal to the yo-yos, be it Leicester or Norwich or Crystal Palace or what have you. You learn to take the good with the bad, celebrate the successes and not let the defeats – of which there are many – get to you too much. It’s an unfair game, after all. In this day and age, the disparity in finances between the big clubs and the yo-yos is so vast that you cannot hope to win.

Or can you?

We all love the Moneyball idea, of course, but as has been pointed out on this blog countless times before, Billy Beane’s approach to building the Oakland A’s into a perennial MLB playoff contender, in spite of budget constraints, only went so far. Theo Epstein then took many of Beane’s ideas and instilled them in the Boston Red Sox, with the financial wherewithal of the Red Sox organization to back him up, and it was Boston who wound up pinning three World Series championship banners up on the clothesline and not the A’s. Perhaps the most successful “moneyball” devotee in the game of soccer was the French club Lyon, who parlayed savvy buying and selling into an incredible seven straight Ligue 1 titles – and Lyon also happens to be the only domestic club to defeat Paris St.-Germain this season, the Paris club having been purchased by a Qatari sovereign wealth fund several years ago and infused with so much money to spend on players that the scales have now been seemingly impossibly tipped. It seems simply unimaginable that anyone other than PSG could win the French league anymore. It’s unthinkable.

But Leicester winning the EPL seemed unthinkable as well, yet here they are on the cusp of doing just that. Leicester City are a triumph of scouting and player development, and of employing creative solutions. Not only are they winning the league, but they’re playing the game in ways like no other club does. For most of the season, Leicester have been near the bottom of the EPL in several statistical categories. They possess the ball less than almost every other club, and are near the bottom in terms of the number of passes completed. Indeed, for most of the season, they seemed perfectly content not to have the ball at all. Rather than play out from the back, the Foxes are perfectly happy to lump the ball forward into wide open spaces and chase down the opposition. They are a high-pressing, high-tempo team and they hunt the ball in swarms and in packs, counterattacking in numbers and at speed when they turn over the opposition.

This is a style of play built somewhat out of necessity. It’s been the time-tested strategy of lesser clubs to try and be well-organized against superior foes and then try and hit them on the counter. Yet this approach has been somewhat tailored and customized at Leicester to fit the particular skill sets of their players – an approach which has yielded a whole far greater than the sum of the parts. About the only name of note on the club at the season’s dawn was that of the goalkeeper, Kasper Schmeichel – not for anything he has done but because his goalkeeper father, Peter Schmeichel, was a Manchester United legend who also spearheaded Denmark’s unlikely European championship in 1992. Leicester City’s squad are a mix of journeymen and cast-offs, a lot of whom couldn’t have gotten a game at any other EPL side.

And they play as if they’re never going to have this chance again. The Foxes run like hell. They generally play at 100 miles an hour. They are tenacious and resilient. It doesn’t bother them if they concede a goal – they simply go about scoring another one. No team has more 1-goal wins than Leicester, and no team has more comeback wins.

But simply to speak of effort sells the Foxes’ tactics short. There is method to the madness. It’s a scheme built around the strengths of their players, and one which aims to hide their deficiencies. For example, the two center halves are both terrific at attacking the ball, but neither is a great man-marker and neither is all that fleet of foot. To compensate, the right back tends to hang back instead of overlapping on the offense, thus giving them a more solid three in the back. The front pairing of Okazaki and Jamie Vardy tend to stack one behind the other, with Okazaki clogging defensive space and freeing the speedy Vardy to serve as an upfront outlet – any sort of danger situation that arises can be solved simply by clearing the ball into vast open spaces and letting Vardy go chasing it down. The Foxes like to pinch the wings and force everything into the middle, where rangy defensive midfielder N’Golo Kanté breaks up the plays and springs the counterattack, at which point the Foxes pour forward at pace.

Kanté has been one of the breakthrough players in the EPL this year. The Foxes acquired him this past season from France’s SM Caen for £5.6 million. Defensive midfield is one of the most rugged and difficult positions on the pitch, and it didn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense to be employing the 5’6” Kanté in that position, yet here he is ranging touchline to touchline and box to box, breaking up all the opposing rushes and making all the plays. Kanté is the leading tackler in the EPL, and it’s hard to find another player in the world playing the position any better.

And this is precisely the sort of bargain buy and barn find that the Foxes have thrived upon. The striker Vardy is a classic late bloomer, 29 years of age and having been playing in England’s 5th Division four years ago. (Vardy was sitting on the Leicester bench, in fact, when this bit of madness occurred in the Division 2 playoffs in 2013. Ironically, he was sitting alongside Harry Kane, the two of them now likely to be spearheading the England attack at this summer’s Euros.) Algerian midfielder Riyad Mahrez, meanwhile, was found in the scrap heap that is the French Ligue 2, purchased from Le Havre for £400,000. Mahrez has 15 goals and 11 assists this season, and is one of the leading candidates for EPL Player of the Year. The entire roster is filled with guys who’ve bounced from club to club, some of whom toiled in Div. 2 obscurity or generally flew under the radar, and together they’ve bought into the system and played as a team, first and foremost.

The mastermind of the Foxes success this year, Claudio Ranieri, is a journeyman in his own right, having gone through about 8 managerial jobs in the past decade, the most recent being a disastrous spell in charge of the Greek national team, during which time they lost twice to the Faeroe Islands in European qualifying. Ranieri was the betting favorite, at the start of the season, to be the first EPL manager sacked. When faced with what appeared to be the worst job in all of the Premier League, Ranieri has responded with positivity, creativity, and clearly he’s tried to keep the game fun. The defense was so bad at the start of the season that Ranieri finally promised pizza for everyone if they could actually keep a clean sheet. And his mantra from the beginning of the season was “40 points” – that being the theoretical number Leicester would need to see them safe from relegation. In every post-match interview during the first half of the season, Ranieri and his players would say the same thing: Leicester’s goal was 40 points, and that’s all that mattered. Leicester had 40 points by Christmas – the first team ever in England to be in last place one Christmas and atop the table the next – and then the mantra changed: now that the Foxes had 40 points, everything else was gravy.

And that may sound trite, but think of the motivation at play here. Relegation is a professional humiliation, one which can affect the trajectory of your career – and also affect your wallet, as many players’ contracts contain clauses allowing for wage cuts if relegation occurs, and your value on the transfer market sinks like a stone. Part of what makes the last two months of a soccer season fascinating is that moribund clubs seemingly rise from the dead. They fight like hell to stay up, and weird results start happening all over the place. The last team you want to face towards the end of a season is a team that’s desperate to avoid relegation. The Foxes carried that mentality from last season over to this one, fighting for every point from the outset, oftentimes rallying from 2-goal deficits and leaving it late. Avoiding being put to the sword was their only team goal – and having done that, they’ve played with freedom and relief ever since. Pundits keep wondering at what point Leicester City will start to feel the pressure. But there is no pressure! The Foxes have been playing with house money for months, and that sense of joy and belief is palpable when you watch them play.

The irony of being so successful is that now everyone in the EPL is giving them respect. Teams sit in deep against Leicester now, attempting to prevent the furious counterattacks and trying to force the Foxes to unlock the defenses. Norwich basically published the blueprint on how to play against Leicester City a few weeks ago, fielding three center backs who collectivity rendered Vardy irrelevant while the rest of the team went about gumming up the works. Nonetheless, Leicester managed to sneak an 89th minute goal to win 1:0. The Foxes have taken 10 of 12 points from their last four games, all of them games which were rather ugly and methodical in nature. Strangely, this spate of ugly wins constitutes further progress for the Foxes. Having run and gunned their way to the top of the table, they’re now showing the guile and moxie necessary to stay there.

The Foxes’ rise to the top has been met constantly with skepticism from the British media, of course, all of whom feast upon the daily soap opera afforded by the divas from Manchester and Greater London. Even now, I’m still finding mildly idiotic predictions online of Leicester somehow winding up finishing third. Leicester is bad for the punditry business, of course, because Leicester are a modest club from a modest city who are drama-free and don’t do anything other than win all the time. Have they been lucky at times this season? Of course, particularly on the injury front, where they’ve skated by all season with a very thin bench (although you could also argue that a team which plays with that tempo and a thin bench is also a product of superior conditioning and preparation). And they took some points here and there which they probably didn’t deserve. They were dreadful in that Norwich game I mentioned before, and could’ve and probably should’ve lost. (Sigh.) But after 30 games of this, it’s no longer a fluke. Plucky little Leicester is no longer plucky. The British press have run out of condescending diminutives to describe this team by now.

And quite honestly, Leicester isn’t so small any more, either. No one in the EPL is. Of the 30 biggest clubs in the world in terms of revenue in 2015, 17 of them were in the EPL. As I’ve said before,  middle-class members of the EPL may not have as much money to spend as the Arsenals and the Man Uniteds and the Chelseas, but they now have more money than just about everyone else on the planet! And all of those non-glamourous clubs have been making up for their lack of resources over the years by being smart. Leicester and Stoke and West Ham and the like spend wisely, since they have less margin for error, but now the quality of player available to them is much greater than in the past. This is why what Leicester’s doing in the EPL this year shouldn’t be labeled as just a one-off or a fluke. And it’s also why it’s an outdated notion to assume that their players, now all of whom have enormous pricetags, are suddenly all going to want to jump ship and go elsewhere. Leicester can afford the players they have, and afford new players, and guess what? WINNING IS FUN! (Or so I’ve been told, anyway.) Ranieri was asked about this possibility in his press conference on Monday, and he shrugged and asked, “why would they want to leave?” You know, that’s a good question. Unless Real or Barca come around throwing £50 million at you, how does it get any better? You’re making good money, and you’re also making history.

And if you’re a fan of one of the bigger clubs in the EPL, you should be outraged by what you’re seeing. Arsenal is flaking their way to another failed season, Man City folds up like a house of cards, Man United has provided nothing but boring dross, and we’ve already been over the tire fire that is Chelsea. You have all the money on the planet, you can buy almost any player you want, and you’re getting beat to the finish line by Leicester? By LEICESTER? Really? Business as usual clearly isn’t cutting it any longer, not when you have smart teams like Leicester and, to a lesser extent, Spurs leading the way. Spurs have spent stupidly over the years themselves, but finally decided to put an end to that nonsense and actually trust in the development of young talent. That team has potential to be terrifying in the future if they keep the core together, and still just might overhaul the Foxes just yet.

“But lads, it’s Tottenham.”  
        
– Sir Alex Ferguson

OK, so maybe not.

And for us Norwich fans and Stoke fans and Crystal Palace fans and Newcastle fans and the like, Leicester up top is the greatest thing we’ve ever seen. The good guys can and do, in fact, win every now and then. Not that often, but it doesn’t have to happen that often to rekindle your faith. Money can’t buy you heart, it can’t buy you guts, it can’t buy you steel, and it can’t you buy you brains – and in the modern EPL, it clearly can’t always buy you a championship.

There have been cases in the past, most recently Nottingham Forest in the 1970s, where a club has been promoted to a higher division and then promptly won the title. But that was back before the big money of the EPL and the Champions League came into play, when the finances were less dissimilar and the gap between divisions wasn’t nearly as severe. Probably the closest thing you can find to this in America would be the worst-to-first Twins and the worst-to-first Braves playing in the 1991 World Series, or the case mentioned previously of San Francisco 49ers starting out the 1981 season at 200-1 odds on the Tahoe books and winding up winning the Super Bowl. But that doesn’t even come close to a 5000-1 shot. 5000-1!

And this is March, which means March Madness here in the U.S., a chance for the underdogs in college basketball to take their place center stage and take their shots at the blue bloods. But in the end, the underdogs never win out. They might pull a stunning upset, but rarely do they go further. The biggest longshots in the NCAAs to win out in my lifetime were, in fact, pretty well-established basketball schools – NC State in 1983, Villanova in 1986, Kansas in 1988 – who reached the role of underdogs by underachieving during the regular season. Butler was a true underdog, a team you knew nothing about but who were scrappy and who punched above their weight and who you could get behind and root for, but then they had to go and lose the final to Duke, who hate fun, and then lose the final to Connecticut in a game so bad that it set college basketball back about 20 years. This year’s NCAA bracket sucks precisely because it has far too few interesting fringe teams and far too many boring big conference schools laden with athletes who can’t shoot and do no particular phase of the game well, thus making a boring sport become even more boring. But I digress.

We need the romance and the excitement of the underdogs. We need the unexpected to happen from time to time to keep our interest. What Leicester is doing this year it wonderful and exciting, and we should all hope they ultimately win the title. Will they be able to defend it? Will they do well in European play next season? Who gives a shit? Live in the moment, and learn to love the Foxes. What they’re doing is unprecedented in sports, and deserving of admiration and support.

And since I referenced a band I really liked in the title of this blog post, the music maven in me feels compelled to throw in one of their songs. This video includes a great interchange between the band and a fan at a concert recorded in Essen, Germany. “We want rock!” Rock on Leicester City: