Thursday, June 14, 2018

Dealing with the Dubs

(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The Lose appreciates alternative points of view. Today, we are graced with another column from Official Tacoma Resident of In Play Lose, Evans Clinchy, whose work I’m a big fan of, and who has appeared previously on this blog. Evans is an esteemed writer of them basketballs and, today, offers this perspective on the leviathan that the Golden State Warriors have become. Evans warned me, when he submitted this article, “sorry to be hating on your team a bit,” except that it’s completely cool by me. One of the things I’m well aware of is that when you support a club that’s reached the top of the mountain, you’re going to have to take some hits, because some others are going to take their shots – which is what they should do. That’s exactly how it should be. We, as sports fans, should all be so lucky as to have the good fortune of reaching a point where out team carries the bullseye for, above all else, being successful. That’s actually what you want to have happen. It’s the best sort of problem to have.

IN the early-evening hours of Oct. 27, 2016, Kevin Durant stayed a few minutes late after practice. The Warriors had just landed in New Orleans, where Durant was scheduled to play his second-ever game in a Dubs uniform the following day. The team’s mandatory activities had wrapped up at 6:30 p.m., but KD stayed on the practice floor past 7, getting extra shots up while his teammates were gathering their stuff and leaving. KD was also, reportedly, yelling at himself all the while.

“They say you’re not hungry!” the Warriors’ superstar bellowed, according to several media outlets. “I’m out here! Put in work! Stay with it!”

This was a ridiculous media spectacle on multiple levels. First and foremost, talk about a pronoun with no antecedent – there was no “they” and there never had been. Not a soul on planet Earth was accusing Kevin Durant of not being hungry, of not wanting it, of not putting in work. KD was engaged in a shouting match with a straw man. On top of that, even if “they” existed, KD wasn’t proving anything to “them” with this practice gym display. There are few events in the world more commonplace than an NBA player taking the practice floor for a few minutes and putting up jump shots. This shooting session wasn’t newsworthy; it was a lame PR stunt.

Apparently it was an effective one, though. Everyone on the Warriors beat covered it. By shouting just a few words – “They say you’re not hungry!” – Durant had managed to turn a mundane evening at the gym into a headline.

This might seem like just a random vignette from a Warriors practice 20 months ago, but I keep thinking about that day because of the tone it set moving forward. That little shooting session was a perfect encapsulation of the current era we’re living through in NBA history. The takeaway was simple: Until further notice, the drama you witness will not be real drama. It will be manufactured. And honestly, when you get down to it, it’ll be pretty lame.

*****

The Warriors won the NBA Finals with ease in both 2017 and 2018. Their combined record during those two postseasons was a positively ludicrous 32-6. Of their eight postseason opponents, only this year’s Rockets were able to survive longer than five games. The Warriors had been beatable in the pre-Durant era, even losing to LeBron James’ Cavaliers in 2016; matching LeBron with KD instead of Harrison Barnes turned a once-fair fight into a comically lopsided one. KD’s numbers in nine Finals matchups with the Cavaliers are comic-bookish: 32.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game on 54.3% shooting from the field, 45% from 3. This might come as a shock, but when you take an already historically great team and replace its weakest link with an MVP in his prime, it tends to work decently well. (Disclaimer: In NBA history, the sample size for this experiment is one.)

Durant’s arrival in Golden State was an all-time historical fluke. The 2016 Warriors were one of the most desirable free-agent destinations ever, and Durant was one of the most desirable players ever to hit the market. The two just happened to cross paths in the exact summer when a massive new TV contract brought hundreds of millions in new revenue to the NBA, resulting in a salary-cap spike that enabled the Warriors to offer Durant max money. The Warriors had to be willing to make a change, which they were because they’d blown a 3-1 lead against Cleveland in the Finals; Durant also had to want out because he’d just similarly choked from up 3-1 against the Warriors. We have never seen such an absurd confluence of timing and circumstance before in sports history, and I doubt we will again.

A lot of blame has been cast on Durant personally for making his decision. This may or may not be fair, depending on how you frame it. Durant – let’s give him a little credit here – surely knew that going to Golden State would create a juggernaut the likes of which we’ve never seen before. That he did it anyway doesn’t indicate some massive ethical failing on his part. It wasn’t something he “had no right” to do, nor was it something that would “ruin the league.” He simply had the option to choose his employer and he exercised that option. Those who defend Durant are totally justified in doing so. The only really valid counterargument is that KD’s choice was ... well, just kinda lame.

It’s lame because Kevin Durant used to be a compelling character. His quest for self-improvement used to be a story that anyone could appreciate. Durant was a star player practically out of the womb, but the early years of his career were characterized by a desperate need to transcend good and become great. In 2013, he opened up and told Sports Illustrated’s Lee Jenkins that he wasn’t satisfied with what he’d accomplished. “I’ve been second my whole life,” he said. “The second-best player in high school, the second pick in the draft, second in the MVP voting. I came in second in the Finals. I’m tired of being second.” Durant was itching to reach new heights in his career, and it was easy to derive real joy from cheering him on. Beating LeBron was his holy grail, and his struggles to get there felt human and relatable.

For anyone who’s appreciated Durant for a long time, seeing him sign with the Warriors brought a crappy ending to a great story. It’s a basketball deus ex machina – Stephen Curry is basically the NBA’s version of the naval officer randomly stumbling onto the island at the end of Lord of the Flies. Durant didn’t do any favors for the Warriors’ narrative, either. Despite the 73 wins, Golden State seemed a tiny bit fallible before KD arrived. That legendary 2016 team lost in the Finals because Barnes shot an appalling 3-of-18 from the field in Games 6 and 7 combined; the Warriors solved their Barnes problem in the most unsubtle, brute-force way possible, swapping him out for a Hall of Famer. It’s like fixing a flat tire on your Volvo by junking the whole car and buying a Ferrari instead. Doesn’t exactly make you a great mechanic.

The Warriors pre-Durant were terrifyingly good, no doubt, but there was still a vulnerability there. If you caught them on the right night, when the shots weren’t falling or the chemistry was a little off, you could get the best of them. Now, that vulnerability is a lot tougher to find. Even when the 2018 Warriors were bad, they were still good. They struggled in Game 3 of this year’s Finals because Curry shot 3-of-16, including 1-of-10 from distance; it ended up not mattering because Durant just nuked everyone and the Warriors won anyway. This is what’s infuriating about the Warriors – you are supposed to lose when your star player shoots 3-of-16. The post-KD Warriors often don’t; they have most ludicrously wide margin for error in NBA history. Taking a nucleus of three superstars and adding a fourth one wasn’t a strategy – it was a cheat code.

You try to have empathy for both sides. For the Warriors and their fans, this moment feels earned – they spent decades watching helpless teams built by incompetent front offices, and their turn atop the NBA is more than overdue. But for everyone else ... man. It’s not hard to see how this era can offend their sensibilities. To anyone outside the Bay Area bubble, a team this good feels like an affront to what the game is supposed to be about. Why even watch a sport when it feels like there’s so little at stake? “It’s their refusal to run the risk of losing,” Bethlehem Shoals quipped in GQ, “to truly put themselves to the test, that people find so galling.” It’s true. Historically, we’ve watched sports for the uncertainty, the “anything can happen”-ness they can offer us. What do you do when suddenly, very few outcomes seem possible anymore?

*****

Wait, back up. That wasn’t a rhetorical question. What do you do? If you’re in Cleveland, Houston, Boston or Toronto, how do you handle this period of Warriors dominance? What do you do if you’re a rung below that, desperately hoping for glory days in a place like Milwaukee or New Orleans or Portland?

We already know Klay Thompson’s answer. The Warriors’ All-Star made headlines on the eve of the Finals when he bluntly replied that “It’s not our fault” and that “the rest of the NBA’s got to get better.” He’s right about the first part, as the Warriors have done nothing wrong, but how realistic is he, really, about the second? “Just get better” is a pipe dream when you’re as far away from the Warriors’ level as everyone else. The Rockets became their best selves this year and took a shot at Golden State but missed, and Chris Paul won’t come back next year any younger. The others just aren’t as talented. Kyle Korver can’t transform himself into a 7-foot behemoth wrecking everyone in his path like Kevin Durant. Pascal Siakam can’t become a two-way Swiss Army knife with a Mozart-level basketball IQ like Draymond Green. Even Kyrie Irving, a superstar in his own right, can’t suddenly learn to shoot like Steph. These are fundamental truths. “Just get better” is far easier said than done. All of these teams will try, but it undeniably feels like they’re fighting a losing battle.

Make no mistake – the battle is still compelling. No team, no matter how dominant, should drive you away from the NBA altogether. The league is, and remains, too damn good for that. It is possible, though, that the Warriors will bring about a temporary shift – the league will be compelling, just in a different way. We’ll watch less for the championship destination and more to enjoy the journey. A quick glance at the TV ratings suggests that that’s indeed what’s happening. Finals viewership dipped a little bit in 2018, with the number of Dubs/Cavs viewers moving from just over 20 million in previous years to just over 18 million now, but the regular season is still going strong. Overall NBA viewership was up 8% this year. All of this is fine – there’s no requirement that we care about teams winning titles first and foremost. Sometimes you can lose sight of the forest, get distracted by a few trees and realize, damn, these are some really dope trees.

The NBA can never be ruined. This is the same league that brought us Bryan Colangelo’s wife being caught with five burner Twitter accounts, Eric Bledsoe tweeting “I Dont wanna be here” from Phoenix and lying that he meant “at the hair salon,” and J.R. Smith getting suspended for throwing a bowl of soup at his own assistant coach. (Important detail: The soup was chicken tortilla.) If you’re not finding entertainment value in today’s NBA, that’s on you.

So if anyone tells you Kevin Durant and the Warriors are monsters and league-ruiners, don’t listen. They’re not that. They’re not even bad dudes, really. But it may be time to admit that, compared to the rest of this crazy-as-hell NBA, they’re a little bit dull, and there’s more interesting drama to watch unfold elsewhere. The rest of the league is out here. They’ll put in work. For better or for worse (usually worse), they’ll stick with it.

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Gaze Into My Crystal Ball

Hmm, I should probably get a new one of these ...

SPORTING Nirvana arrives tomorrow for The Lose. I’ll probably be posting frequently here, if not every day, because I love the World Cup and think it’s the best. This is the greatest athletic competition on earth. This is great sport, great drama, great theatre, great pageantry, the ramifications of which often transcend the sport itself. World Cup results have sent people jumping off buildings, have brought down governments – but also, occasionally, bring a little harmony and joy as well.

I already wrote my short-attention span preview the other day, which a few sort of off-the-cuff predictions based entirely on my hopes of winning some money in Vegas on this tournament. Now that I’ve actually put some thought into it, and done some research, I’m prepared to be even more catastrophically incorrect in my pre-tourney assessments. The Lose isn’t afraid of being both absurdly wrong and also being right with the frequency of a broken clock. It’s time for the In Play Lose World Cup predictions – 32 guaranteed, sure fire, certain to be right except when they are not predictions about the event. Take this to the bank, but don’t cash the cheque because it’s no damn good, and remember kids, gambling is a sin. Also, if the teams involved here do some of the things I predict they’ll do, you can bet that I’ll be writing about it.

1. The worst game of the tournament is very likely to also be the first one.
2. The first goalless draw of this tournament will be Sweden vs. South Korea.
3. The game during which I’ll likely fall asleep is Serbia vs. Switzerland. (I say this knowing full well that the Saturday quadruple header starts at 3:00 a.m. here on the West Coast, but I will be there for it. We don’t care about no stinkin’ time zones.)
4. The biggest blowout will be Belgium v. Panama.
5. At least one team in this tournament will lose a match because of some awful VAR decision.
6. At least two coaches will be fired before the group stage is even over. Hell, considering Spain fired one before it even started, that number may be even higher.
7. All five Asian teams are going to be bad.
8. Japan is the team most likely to take no points at all while scoring no goals at all.
9. Unlike in 2014, where the African teams generally played quite poorly, four of the five African teams will play well in this tournament. At least one will advance from the group. My guess is Senegal. If Mo Salah plays for Egypt, it could very easily be two.
10. England will be fun. Yes, I’m stunned to admit this.
11. That said, the full-on national crisis will envelop England about the time they win 1-0 over Tunisia on some lucky 86th minute goal that ricochets off a rock and past the Tunisian keeper.
12. My Group A storyline will be just how bad it is and how easy it is for Uruguay.
13. My Group B storyline is that Portugal will put themselves in some sort of peril of not advancing, and slither their way off the hook somehow.
14. My Group C storyline is that the French will have one game where they win 6-1 or something to tease and tantalize us, and then the rest of the time we’ll be wondering what’s wrong with them.
15. My Group D storyline will be that Argentina v. Croatia is the kind of game where the better team wins, and people will say, in retrospect, “yeah, I actually thought Croatia might be the better team going into it, but I didn’t want to admit it.”
16. My Group E storylines are that Brazil is gonna run all over people and it’ll be awesome, and am I crazy to like Costa Rica’s chances to get out here? I’m liking that more and more.
17. My Group F storyline is that Sweden will make Germany look bad, because they generally make everyone look bad, but still lose and we’ll wonder what’s wrong with the Germans after such a droll performance. (Hint: nothing.)
18. My Group G storyline is that Belgium and England are are both likely to be on 6 points after two games and it wouldn’t shock me if one of these teams looks at the bracket, tries to get a feel for whether they’d rather play Brazil or Germany in the Quarters, and basically throws a shoe in order to try and get a better draw. As such, I could see one of those teams winning 3-1 or something and messing up everyone’s impressions of the two teams.
19. My Group H storyline is that James is going to remind all of us that, contrary to his play for his clubs over the past four years, he’s really good at football.
20. Another guy in this tournament who I think might break out and remind people he’s really good at football is Kelechi Iheanacho of Nigeria.
21. At least one of these groups will completely go to shit, because it always happens that way. One of them goes mental and weird stuff happens. (Think Costa Rica winning their group in 2014.) It always happens, but it’s also impossible to figure out which one it will be.
22. Regardless of results, Iceland will have more fun than anyone else.
23. My sleeper team is Peru. I love me some Peru. Peru will make the 16s and will be a pain in the ass to eliminate.
24. The biggest bust of this tournament is an obvious one. I’ve been betting on Argentina to fail in the World Cup for almost 30 years now and it’s paid off handsomely. I’m not about to stop now. This team is going nowhere.
25. Mexico will be the best team with nothing to show for it because they’ll play really well against Germany, and again vs. Brazil in the 16s, and lose both games close.
26. The “what in the hell are they doing playing in the 16s?” game will be France v. Argentina.
27. England will outplay Germany in the Quarters and lose on penalties.
28. Belgium v. Brazil in the Quarters will be the game of the tournament.
29. France and Germany will reach the semis, with the former feeling like they blew it (which they almost certainly will have), and the latter being frustrated and getting tormented yet again by Spain keeping the ball for 70 minutes.
30. Romelu Lukaku of Belgium will be the top scorer. He may be the top scorer simply based on how many he puts past Panama.
31. Belgium will finish second. I know that I said that four years ago, but I really mean it this time.
32. Spain will win the World Cup, because who really needs a coach, anyway?

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

The Weird Cup

Oh look, a photo of two guys playing soccer which may or may not reflect my World Cup prediction

1982 was the first time that I followed the World Cup. And 1982 was nuts. It was nuts right from the get-go, as defending champion Argentina, and their 19-year-old wünderkind Diego Maradona, got beat 1-0 by the Belgians at the Camp Nou in Barcelona in the opening game of the tournament. This tourney came on the heels of the Falklands War, so Argentina was having a bad go of things at the time. Gen. Leopoldo Galtieri was requested to resign five days later, and a prevailing joke at the time was that whereas losing a war to the Brits merely staggered Argentina’s military government, it was losing to the Belgians that finally finished the junta off.

And the tournament just got weirder from there. It was an expanded event, having grown from 16 teams in 1978 to 24 in 1982, with the lion’s share of those eight new teams coming from the lesser confederations, meaning that nobody knew who they were, where they came from, or if they were any good or not. I suspect West Germany didn’t give Algeria a single thought before the Fennec Foxes beat them 2-1 in one of the tourney’s greatest upsets of all time – a result ultimately rendered moot when the West Germans beat the Austrians 1-0 in Gijón in a result that was, shall we say, convenient for both sides, since both of them knew, ahead of time, the result they needed to achieve in order to advance. The Algerian fans used a different word than convenient, to be sure, having watched their team be eliminated in a game where the Germans and Austrians basically walked about the field and practiced square passing and rolling long balls back to the keeper. It’s this rather dubious match which led to the final group games being simultaneously started, seeing as how the tournament format had come to be gamed and irretrievably damaged.

But the entire format of the tourney was a mess, including these weird 3-team second round groups, a dumb idea for a format which contributed to England ultimately being eliminated despite never losing any of their five games in the tournament. The goofy format was cooked up to try and funnel teams into an eventual Argentina v. Brazil/West Germany v. Spain set of semifinals – an idea which pretty much went out the window immediately when Argentina lost to the Belgians and the hosts contrived to lose to Northern Ireland, meaning you wound up with these boffo 2nd round groups – Argentina/Brazil/Italy, West Germany/England/Spain – and two other 2nd round groups which were an absolute snooze full of lesser sides who ambled their way into a chance to succeed. Nothing at all about this tournament seemed to actually go right.

España 1992 saw Hungary score 10 goals in a game, saw a Kuwaiti sheik run onto the field and threaten to pull his team off the pitch if a French goal wasn’t disallowed, saw the best Brazilian team of the last 48 years steadfastly refuse to play it safe when all it needed to advance to the semifinal was a draw and go out in a James Deansian blaze of glory with a 3-2 loss to the Italians. It featured what was probably the wildest game in the entire history of the tournament, the semifinal between France and West Germany which finished 1-1 in regulation, finished 3-3 after extra time as the French blew a 3-1 lead, and featured the first penalty shootout in World Cup history – a concept which was novel and exciting at the time, whereas now it’s become this dreadful sort of ending to a game that we all want to avoid. That game also featured the single-nastiest play I’ve ever seen on a pitch – and, also, the single worst piece of officiating I’ve ever seen, since Harold Schumacher wasn’t even called for a foul, much less sent off, much less booked for assault. Between that and essentially fixing their game with the Austrians, the West Germans proved to the be the most villainous of World Cup villains, a cynical and loathsome lot that I’m not sure even many Germans liked. When Italy put three past them in the second half of the final at the Bernabeu in Madrid, it felt as if a certain cosmic justice had been served.

The 1982 World Cup had all of that and I was hooked. It was completely cuckoo bananas and absolutely amazing. It had almost everything. One thing that it didn’t have, however, was the U.S. And 1986 was pretty awesome too: you had the Soviets running rampant, the Danes going nuts, neither the Soviets nor the Danes then bothering to defend anyone in the second round and conceding nine goals between them in their exits, Scotland doing Scotland things and failing to advance by failing to score a goal against Uruguay despite having a man advantage for 89 minutes, Morocco becoming the first African team to win a group, the Belgians annoying everyone on their way to the semis, Maradona cheating, Maradona being brilliant, Maradona being even more brilliant, and a cracking good 3-2 final between Argentina and a West German side that almost came off as likable. It was great stuff. Great competition, great theatre, incredible drama. But again, one thing that the 1986 World Cup in Mexico lacked was the U.S.

I’m mentioning this because a good number of soccer followers that I know here in America are young enough that they can’t even conceive of a World Cup without the U.S. – a prospect we are facing here in the summer of 2018. Yes, this actually used to happen. It used to happen a lot, in fact. And just because my home nation wasn’t involved, it didn’t mean it couldn’t be compelling. It is definitely worth tuning in for on your televisions.

Which, by the way, was something that you couldn’t do in 1982. ESPN carried that opener between Argentina and Belgium, ABC showed the Italy-West Germany final, and other than that, well, my World Cup viewing that season consisted of watching the special World Cup editions of the show Soccer Made in Germany, a PBS program, which culled the highlights of the games into conveniently-sized packages. The sport was completely off the radar in this country at the time, and seemed destined to stay that way so long as U.S. Soccer were going about scheduling key World Cup qualifiers against Mexico at the L.A. Coliseum, caring far more about the gate receipts from the 85,000 Mexican fans in attendance than how the team actually did – a propensity for money-grubbing and brazen self-interest which has continued in U.S. Soccer to this very day. The sport was at such a pathetic place in this country that the World Cup qualifier I attended in 1989, a 1-1 draw with Trinidad & Tobago, took place in a community college football stadium in Torrance, California, on a pitch which had been damaged in the days leading up to it by a pickup truck doing donuts. I don’t even remember who I went to the game with. I just remember that the game was bad. USA FC were pants. They were absolute rubbish and the entire affair was amateurish, if not outright shambolic. I’m still amazed that team qualified for a World Cup. (The magic moments come at the 36:57 and the 1:38:48 marks of that video.)

In the bigger picture, it’s a good thing that people are mad about the U.S. not making the World Cup in 2018. Back in the 1980s, literally no one cared. (I have no idea on what page of the L.A. Times the game story for that T&T Torrance debacle was found, but it sure as hell wasn’t on Page 1.) And we’ve had a few of these tell-all stories come out here recently, one from ESPN and another from The Ringer, in which everyone interviewed who was part of the program goes about pointing fingers without anyone just coming out and saying what the fundamental problem was, which is that everyone involved was arrogant as fuck, far too quick to pat themselves on the back and trumpet modest successes, yet still wanting to be able to slip back into “we’re still a developing soccer nation” mode when it was convenient, such as when they flopped on their faces and embarrassed themselves like they did against Argentina in the Copa América semifinal or against Mexico in that Confed Cup playoff. (But I’ve been over this before.) Now, obviously, no one being interviewed for those sorts of journalistic exposés is going to come right out and say, “yeah, we were arrogant as fuck.” The hope is that, behind the scenes, someone involved in the program is willing to admit that fact while doing a proper postmortem, but I’ve seen nothing amid the muddled, mixed messages coming out of U.S. Soccer to instill me with much optimism. But hey, at least they’re playing the kids now, and the kids are making all the sorts of mistakes in friendlies we want to see them making. It’s strange to watch USA FC field a team of young, athletic, talented kids who play hard. I didn’t know we did that in this country. Gosh, some of them might have even been useful in the qualifiers a year ago.

Being introspective about your shortcomings is something that should be done in the context of missing the World Cup – and part of that involves watching the event itself and reminding yourself of how good it is. And I suspect that Russia 2018 will be a good event, in the end, in spite of the fact that so many teams which, on paper at least, should be there will not be: no Italy, no Holland, no Chile, no U.S., almost none of the teams from Africa that we thought were any good. You could assemble a pretty terrifying first XI from the countries who didn’t earn a ticket to Russia:



Now, it’s their own damn fault, of course. The table doesn’t lie, and for all of those guys above and the teams that I mentioned, the table says, “you suck, and you don’t get to play next summer.” But as I’m watching the Belgians go about putting god knows how many goals past Panama in their first round game, I’m going to be thinking to myself, “what in the hell is that team doing in this tournament?” As bad as Panama could be, Saudi Arabia will likely be worse, and they’ll be front and center playing the Russians in the opening match of the tournament, and which point millions and millions of people around the world will scratch their collective heads and go, “huh?”

There is a decided lack of enthusiasm for this summer’s World Cup, one which stems, at the core, from the fact that FIFA is so corrupt and so beyond repair that, on the day that they awarded the 2018 World Cup to Russia, they also awarded the 2022 World Cup Qatar in what was an act of brazen bribery. Those involved in FIFA were so self-involved and so determined to enrich themselves that they as much as killed their own golden goose with the awarding of that 2022 tournament, and are stubbornly going forth with the idea and going so far as to move it to winter time – a pretty good idea, given that playing soccer in the 115° temps of June is unideal – while completely disrupting the mechanics of the global game in the process. It’s such a dumb idea that it could only be carried out though sheer self-absorption and full-on commitment to graft.

And sure, we know these people are sleazebags and always have been. FIFA’s never been squeaky clean, and its structure as much as ensures that it never will be. It’s never been a group which was afraid of cozying up to a strongman – this organization did allow its showcase event to be overseen by a military junta, after all. But just because you’re corrupt, it doesn’t mean you can’t also be proactive and, on occasion, be visionary. It was a no-brainer to hold the World Cup in 1994 in the U.S. People didn’t think it at the time, but the end result was the most successful tournament in the sport’s history in terms of attendance and income. It was a no-brainer to go to Asia in 2002 and Africa in 2010. All three of those World Cups that I mentioned sought to grow the game, both in terms of markets where it was being underserved, if not floundering, and also in terms of potential talent pools for the future, since talent is ultimately what you’re selling. But the original proposals for 2022, featuring temporary stadia that would be fully air conditioned while still outdoors, were absolute fairy tales. To entrust this event to a 115° climate, to somehow buy notions that a place the size of Connecticut could welcome 3,000,000 visitors, and to knowingly look away from the fact that the place’s barbaric labor laws would result in countless worker deaths, constitutes a selling of what was left of their souls.

In doing something which screams out, “we are actively accepting bribes and we like it,” everything connected to FIFA, be it past or present or future, is assumed to be compromised beyond reproach. Even if you think that Russia made sense as a host nation (which I did, given its size and also its sizable footballing tradition), simply being associated with this mess of a double bidding process leaves you tainted by proxy, deservedly or not. Throw in some logistical issues – it’s a huge country, after all, even if you’re only using a sliver of it for this tournament – the persistent problems with racism that don’t jibe with a global audience, and the disturbing propensities towards hooliganism that reared it’s ugly head in Marseille during the Euros in 2014, and no one seems terribly excited to want to be there. The Confed Cup in 2015 drew shockingly few foreign visitors – mostly Chileans, but hardly anyone else. You’d think that Iceland would be huge into this, given that, during the 2014 Euros, as much as 10% of the population of the country was in France during the tournament, but even in their maiden voyage to the World Cup, expectations are that only about half as many Icelandic fans will turn up in the seats of the stadia for the games. Everything feels off for this tournament. Everything feels weird.

And this should be cause for concern to FIFA, because the international game is less popular than ever before. With the full-on integration of the world’s talent pool, combined with the massive brand appeal of the world’s largest clubs, club football is where it’s at. And with good reason – you have the greatest players in the world all playing together, and witnessing it is seeing the actual game itself being played at its highest level. UEFA is already trying to do something different this upcoming fall, experimenting with an international league in order to generate some more interest in the international game. The FAs need that sort of interest to continue in order to sustain themselves, but when you see USA FC barely able to fill a 10,000-seat stadium for a friendly, and the likelihood that a pre-season match between Liverpool and Manchester United is going to draw 110,000 in Ann Arbor, you know where the bigger interests truly lay.

My main reason for being fond of international football is that club football’s time-tested strategy for problem-solving is just to go out and throw money at the problem. You can’t do that in international football. You have to make do with what you have, you have to adapt to the personnel available to you. This couldn’t have been made more clear than in a recent friendly between Spain and Argentina where La Albiceleste got thrashed 6-1. Even with Messi not playing in that game, Argentina still have about eight good forwards they can throw out there, but as I’ve said before, Messi has to be more of a midfield playmaker on that team, a position which otherwise goes wanting for Argentina at the moment, and as was on display against Spain, the defense is even weaker than the midfield, and the goalkeeping might be worse further still. Okay, now what? Their head coach, Jorge Sampaoli, has a distinct system of play he wants to use, but I suspect playing in a 0-0-3-8 formation isn’t it, and he doesn’t seem to have the kind of athletes in his squad he needs to do what he wants. Well, you have little more than a week to figure it out, because Argentina has by far the toughest opening group of the eight and they haven’t looked anywhere close to being a World Cup favorite.

See, I got going in that last paragraph and now I’m enthusiastic. I can tell everyone how I think this World Cup is going to be weird and strange and probably something of a downer, but I’ll watch every minute of it, and write too many words about it, and there will almost certainly be some compelling, intense matches and individual moments both of brilliance for me to praise and folly for me to mock. To varying degrees, we can overlook all of the off-field stuff if the football is good. The 1990 tournament in Italy ultimately went off pretty well, but it’s still not thought of very highly in hindsight, because the games were absolutely terrible. The games were generally terrible in Japan and Korea in 2002, owing to moving the schedule forward several weeks on account of weather and rendering many rosters either dog tired or injury laden, but for us here in the U.S., of course, 2002 was fantastic because our team played terrific and reached the quarterfinals and got Torsten Fringsed out of a possible semifinal spot. Barring something incredibly catastrophic or appalling happening, how we come to view the event depends on the on-field product.

And I’m going to attempt to be optimistic on that front, even though I’m not so sure that I should. I felt that, Nos. 1-32, the 2014 field was as strong and deep as any in the 32-team era, but I look at the 2018 field, Nos. 1-32, and I think it’s clearly the worst. My goodness, how did some of these teams get into the tournament? There is going to be some pretty dreadful games in the first round. (There always are.) That said, I do have some vested interest here, as I foolishly wagered on the World Cup during my last trip to Las Vegas, and while it’s absent some of the bigger names amid both the upper and middle-classes, the tournament still has plenty of potential for surprises, and there are some at the top end who, if they get their shit together, can be really dynamic and exciting. So I’m going to assume here that the games themselves will be good to watch until proven otherwise … which may last all of one game, but we’ll see.

And since I’m here, I may as well write-up my short attention span preview of the World Cup, because I’ve managed to talk myself into being enthusiastic during the 3,300 words of this blog post, so the hell with it, why stop now?

Group A just might be one of the worst groups ever assembled for a World Cup, in part because Russia are probably the weakest host side of all-time. Then again, the last comparably weak team that played host – the U.S. in 1994 – rode that good home cooking all the way to the 2nd round, and the Russians have traditionally had a terrific home field advantage. How bad this group will be depends upon whether or not Mo Salah can get healthy for Egypt. If Salah’s on the pitch, the Pharoahs have a legit chance of qualifying for the 2nd round. If not, they’re probably toast. I cannot see anyone other than Uruguay winning this group, given their high-end talent and their uncanny ability to get results, although I do not expect the latter to be that necessary in their first three games, as the former should suffice.

Group B is where I start to care because I got a really good price in Vegas on Spain back in November, before they unleashed the ruthless killing machine on Argentina this spring and announced that the post-2014 rebuild was over. With players like Isco and Ascencio, they now have young athletes to pair with their typically savvy ball possession game. I’m liking that 9/1 I got more and more by the day. Portugal were my long shot, a $10 bet at 22/1, simply because they proved in the Euros in 2016 that they know how to win stuff. Everyone needs a long shot bet, and who was I gonna take? England? Pfft.

Well played, Scottish Humour. Well played.

Portugal always interests me simply because unlike at Real Madrid, where Ronaldo can show up for 10 minutes and strut, when it comes to Portugal, he has to actually lead, he has to make plays for others and be fully engaged. The football wasn’t always great in France in 2016, but the Portuguese have some steel and some moxie. The other two teams in this group are interesting and you don’t really know what you’re going to get. Iran typically has the best talent in Asia but rarely gets the results, as the team always seems to be mired in some sort of political mess or another. (Get used to hearing that.) Morocco, meanwhile, took the Algerian tactic of recruiting any and everyone they could find playing the game on the European continent who could be eligible for a passport and giving it to them. There are 17 of their players who grew up on the continent – all of whom, of course, grew up in club and academy development systems, which means this team has more sophistication than previous Moroccan sides, many of whom still did pretty well in their own right. They looked pretty damn impressive when I watched them smack down the Côte d’Ivoire in their CAF qualifying group, but then again, the Côte d’Ivoire had hired the Belgian bumbler Marc Wilmots as a coach, who brought along his penchant for doing less with more, and I’m not sure how much of it was incompetence on the part of Elephants. Interesting team though, and having them in the same group as Spain and Portugal certainly provides a little extra regional spice.

It’s funny to me that so much attention is being given to Group C front-runner France’s potential future coach, be it Zinedine Zidane or Arsene Wenger or whatnot. This is because pretty much everyone I read associated with the French game is of the belief that one way or another, current head coach Didier Deschamps is going to find a way to take what is one of the most talented teams in the tournament and screw it up somehow. I’ve also got a bet on the French, even though I’ve been underwhelmed by their performances the past couple of years. I would like to think this is the tournament where Paul Pogba really busts out, but so long as Deschamps is going to do stupid things like have him playing as a Number 6, like he was doing in the Euros, I’m not so sure. In any event, they’re not going to have any trouble in what is, on balance, a pretty bad group. No one other than Christian Eriksen particularly scares me about the Danes. We all owe Peru a debt of gratitude, because it was them beating Brazil in the 2016 Copa América that got Dunga fired from the Seleção, and he took his terrible football with him, for which we’re all better off. I like me some Peru, they play hard and they’re tenacious, and their ploy of having Peruvian fighter jets buzz the New Zealand hotel during their 2-legged playoff was the stuff of trolling lore, and having captain Paolo Guerrero back from suspension bodes well. My general rule of thumb is that in a game between a mediocre European team and mediocre South American team on neutral grounds, go with the South Americans, so I suspect Peru will get the second spot. I’ve said nothing in this paragraph about Australia and there’s a reason for that.

Group D, aah Group D, give me some of that. This is the Group of Death. This is some fantastic stuff. As mentioned before, I have no idea what Argentina is going to do. They usually just muddle their way through first rounds, anyway, often looking terrible in the process. Croatia has high-end talent in Modrić, Rakitić, Kovačić and Mandžukić, but they’ve also had this propensity in the past for completely losing their minds when things stop going their way and resorting to seeing which one of them can get thrown out of the game the fastest. I’ve always loved me some Super Eagles, of course, and while this year’s Nigeria are shorter on experience, they’re never short on talent and, for once, seem to be shorter on political discord and longer on harmony, which bodes well for their chances. As for the 4th team in the group, SLEEP ON ICELAND AT YOUR PERIL. I said that two years ago and am still being proven correct. Besides being the feel-good story of the tournament (and, by the way Sports Illustrated’s Grant Wahl has the best job ever), Iceland are a pain in the ass to play against. How well they do will likely depend on the health of Gylfi Sigurðsson, but they’ve shown the ability to adapt and adjust. They won their UEFA qualifying group ahead of Croatia, and have now morphed from just being defensively rigid into also being able to play possession football as needed, and they’re still ruthless on the set pieces. I have no idea how this group is going to shake out.

I suspect there will be some tension in Group E when Serbia take on a Swiss team which has recently been laden with a number of immigrant kids from the Balkans who took refuge during the assorted wars of the 1990s. The Serbs have some young players on this rise, but this roster for Russia is sort of meh, and they got here by winning what turned out to be the weakest of the European groups. The Swiss, meanwhile, were unable to do what they did in 2014, which was to game the FIFA World Ranking system enough to land a top seed that they were wholly undeserving of. (And if you don’t believe me, go back to the video in 2014 of them getting slaughtered by the French.) But they’re going to duke it out for second, because this group is all about the rebirth of Brazil, and Jesus, this team has got a lot of talent and now looks as if they’ll have a healthy Neymar in the fold, to boot. Tite has brought the fun back to the Seleção since taking over for Dunga at the helm. Brazil absolutely steamrolled CONMEBOL in qualifying, and they have a legit élite player, plying his trade at an élite club, at pretty much every position on the pitch. The fourth team in this group are Costa Rica, who were quarterfinalists in 2014 and probably going to live off their laurels. They’re an older team now, a well-organized and experienced team, but that run in 2014 was due in large part to Keylor Navas standing on his head in between the sticks, which is a big ask. They might be able to get some points in this group, but I’m not sure they can get enough.

I expect the Germans to do plenty of German things in Group F, and by that I mean they’ll probably win a lot of games and not look all that great doing it. We tend to remember the 7-1 thrashing of Brazil in 2014 and forget that, among their other games that year, they also had three 1-goal wins, with none of those games being very impressive, a 2-2 draw with Ghana that they probably should have lost, and a World Cup final they would have lost if Gonzalo Higuaín could’ve hit the side of a barn. This isn’t to say the Germans were undeserving of being champions in 2014. Obviously, they had one magnificent night in Belo Horizonte which showed how great they can be, but more often, they were just good enough – which is, in fact, the sign of a great team to be able to eke out so many wins, but it also speaks to the margins being closer than you might think. The core of that team is still intact, of course – Neuer, Hummels, Boateng, Müller, Özil, Kroos, etc. etc. etc. – but just when you think they’re about to get old and slow, they throw a B team out there and win the Confed Cup with it and remind you that they grow players on trees. I actually think El Tri are gonna be good and the Germany-Mexico game in Moscow on June 17 could be the best first round game of the tournament. El Tri are deep, experienced, and they have playmakers all over the pitch. This is going to be a good one. South Korea were awful four years ago, and my only watch of them since was in a dreadful AFC game against Uzbekistan where the Uzbeks threw away a possible World Cup spot, and the fact that I’m talking about Uzbeks should tell you what I thought of the South Koreans, which wasn’t much. As for Sweden, I’ve seen them quite a bit in the past few years, both with Zlatan and without, and I’m shocked they are even in this tournament. I have to say that other than about 10 good minutes in their playoff game in Italy, during which time they deservedly scored, I’ve seen literally nothing in any of those matches that impresses me. I guess there is something to be said for their resourcefulness. I’ll give them that. That does count for something.

In Group G, the first XI for Belgium is absolutely terrifying. If I had to bet on the tournament’s top scorer, I’d pick Romelu Lukaku because he’s got three legit Number 10s in Hazard and DeBruyne and Mertens feeding him the ball. Roberto Martinez-coached teams always seem to have this propensity for believing that defending is optional, but Mousa Dembélé and a healthy Vincent Kompany should shore that up. I also got 9/1 on the Belgians in Vegas. I’m loving those odds. I actually think England are going to pretty good. For once, they aren’t relying upon has-beens living off their laurels. England are actually young, quick, have a stud goal scorer up front in Harry Kane, and if they can actually figure out who the hell is going to play in the center of the park, I could easily see them reaching the quarters and getting ousted on penalties by the Germans. I already said what I think about Panama, and I suspect Tunisia will be in the same boat, but whereas I think the Belgians are just going to run all over those two teams, it’s usually the England way to play terrible against one of the minnows and send the entire nation down a swirling, sucking eddy of despair.

This year’s How The Hell Are They A #1 Seed team is Poland in Group H. Poland are a good team – solid keepers, a stiff defense, a terrific goal scorer in Lewandowski paired with an excellent strike partner in Milik – but I think I’d still be more inclined to favor James and the more dynamic Colombians to win this group. They were terrific in Brazil four years ago, looked good in finishing third in Copa América in 2016, and while they weren’t great in CONMEBOL qualifying for the World Cup, CONMEBOL is so rigorous and stressful that it has a way of making a lot of teams look bad. Senegal could also be exciting and competitive it what looks to be a pretty even group, although be honest, I’m not terribly interested in Japan, especially not after writing 5,500 words of this blog post.

Predictions? Hmm. In 2010, I wished that I’d been wagering, since I got the Spain-Netherlands final right, 3/4 of the semis right, most of the quarters right, and would have made bank betting on the U.S. to win their group. So obviously, I’m never, ever wrong about this stuff … *checks previous predictions* … eh, okay, so, never mind. So take this to the bank, but do not cash the check. The winner of the July 6 quarterfinal between Brazil and Belgium will be in the final, beating France in the semis. Having dispatched of England on penalties in the quarters, because it could end no other way, the Germans will then lose to Spain in the semis. So give me a Spain-Belgium final, and the winner is me at that point, since it’ll give me a reason to go to Vegas and cash my winning ticket.

And it’s worth watching, because there is always the potential for something great to occur, something magical and brilliant, something completely confounding and utterly nutters. And the top-end talent that will be on display in this event can, on their day, deliver something absolutely exquisite. So don’t be a bunch of sourpuss homers, my American friends, and my disappointed Dutch friends and family, and my passionate Italian readers – one of whom recently wrote to me, “Dear Mr. Lose, yes you are correct Italy is crap,” which is my favorite fan mail of all time. Yeah, our teams are crap right now, but we can get better. And as weird as the vibe has been surrounding this tournament in the run-up, it’s probably going to be worth watching, even from afar.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

9 Out of 10 People Lose

photo by flopturnriver.com

The Lose is retired from cards. I basically stopped playing when I no longer felt like I could afford to lose. Now when I go to Vegas, I just eat a lot and do stupid things like bet on W.S.U. football. But I’ve always enjoyed gambling, and if I ever get my shit together, I’ll finish this novel that I’ve been working that’s partially set in the casinos of Europe around the time of the fall of The Berlin Wall. The story someone told me about playing blackjack with the Stasi just cannot go untold.

Today, we have a post on the subject of poker, as The Lose welcomes back guest columnist Jason Idalski, who previously wrote for this site on the perils of covering Eastern Michigan Football,  a.k.a. “Reasons to Develop a Drinking Problem On the Job.” Jason is also a former Jeopardy! champion, and has participated in the World Scrabble Championships – although his lifetime record in scrabble is 0-1 vs. The Lose, in a game both of us would agree was among the worst we’ve ever played. He’s also a pretty fine poker player – although as you’ll see from this article, maybe not quite good enough, as if it were ever possible to actually be ‘good enough’ in an event where 9 out of 10 people lose.


I HAVE tried to (hopefully) make this post accessible to all, even those who have never played poker before. If you know nothing about hold 'em poker but are still interested for the sake of the post or just to learn the basics, here's a good four-minute primer video. I have used the term poker to refer to Texas hold 'em even though this is technically incorrect. Poker is a game of many variations, including hold 'em. This was done more to be colloquial and because I'm so used to using the terms interchangeably with friends.

“What you have to remember about poker is: in every hand, nine out of 10 people lose. And in most tournaments, nine out of 10 people lose. And that can be tough to deal with.”
– Poker dealer Brian Vock, to me

Brian was one of my favorite dealers at the casino I usually play at and we were shooting the breeze after a tournament I'd cashed in. I feel like he must have put in his two weeks notice by that point and knew it would be our last conversation before he left for parts unknown and wanted to impart his wisdom, such as it were, on a newer player looking to learn.

He was referring to my style of trying to be good-natured, and as simple a concept as it was, it had never occurred to me before. The dynamics of poker (and, by extension, losing at poker) are different than most competitions. Most games are one-on-one: one player vs. one player or one team vs. one team. Even most board games cap out at 4-6 people.

Golf is an exception, where you are in essence competing against the course but in reality you're competing against the rest of the field. But in golf half the people make the cut. (Although, as the saying goes, how would you like to compete against the 100-plus best people at what you do and beat half of them to earn a paycheck each week?)

In poker, you have to beat usually nine other people if you want to win a hand. And unlike one-on-one competition, that means having nine scouting reports, nine people with varying styles of play. Imagine a football team having to defend against the option and the air raid simultaneously. It's a daunting task and makes losing streaks inevitable for even the best players, especially since usually only 10% of tournament entries cash.

In chess, the properties and powers of a bishop are fixed. In poker, it's wobbled through the prism of personality.” 
– Victoria Coren Mitchell (OK, Coren Mitchell credited the above to Martin Amis, but she's the one who said it on QI.)

This quote sums up one of the things that is beautiful (and simultaneously maddening) about poker. In chess, I can move a bishop diagonally and so can you. In sports, the equipment is roughly the same even in sports like tennis and golf. But in poker, if I start off with a pair of nines and you start off with a pair of nines, in essence the same "playing pieces," we may play them very differently depending on our experience level, aggression level, or sometimes something as random as where we're sitting at the table. Similarly, there are pre-flop holdings such as the 7-6 of diamonds that players like me don't like to play while there are others who love to play it. It's all subjective.

It makes sense that poker was a game common in the Wild West, as sometimes it feels like there are no rules. When facing a better poker player, at times it can feel like playing a golfer who can use his putter to hit a 300-yard drive.

Getting back to losing, it shows that nothing is guaranteed. Poor players can blunder their way into losing with the best hand in any number of ways. They can play too passively and let their opponents catch up. They can be bullied by a bluffing opponent's big bet (say that ten times fast) and lay down the better hand. And even when they "get it in good," sometimes plain old bad luck steps in.

"See, a guy's got to have the gamble in him. ... He's got to be the kind of guy who will go you 50 [thousand] on a flip of a coin. Some guys don't have the gamble in 'em, see? They wouldn't go fifty on a flip of a coin if you gave them 3-to-1 odds." 
– Poker pro Dewey Tomko, as told to Rick Reilly in ‘Who's Your Caddy?’

The weekend before Memorial Day, starting Friday, I played a tournament in Toledo with a couple friends. $85 buy-in, the top 10% advance to Sunday with the stack they had at the finish of their flight. Friday morning's flight had 52 entries, so the top five were in. I got off to a very good start and was in a strong position with about 25 people left. We were playing our last hand before the second break of the day. I had two aces (A-A), the strongest starting hand in hold 'em. I put in a standard pre-flop raise and got two callers.

The flop (first three of five community cards) came K-J-7, nothing that would concern me too much. The cards were of three different suits ("rainbow," in poker lingo) so no flush draws were possible. Both players checked to me and I bet my aces again. The guy to my left (Josh, I would later learn his name was) raised all-in (all of his chips). When I called immediately he said "oops" and turned over king-queen. The turn (fourth community card) came a meaningless card (a "brick"), leaving him only five cards in the deck to stay alive: the two remaining kings and the three remaining queens. The river (fifth and last community card) was one of two said kings, giving Josh three of a kind and the pot. 

And as if I won't be hammering the point home about how fine a line there is between success and failure in poker enough in this post, instead of being out the door Josh had about 40,000 in chips and turned that 40,000 into more than 1,000,000 in chips with 11 players left.

"That's harsh." 
– my two friends, separately, after witnessing the above hand

I had won a couple big hands before that bad beat and ran well enough afterward that I ended up making the final (10-person) table. Half of us were going to qualify, though, and I had a chip stack about half the average, so I still had a lot of work to do. Fortunately that distribution was skewed upward, as it seemed that two or three people were above average and seven or eight were below. Two or three people looked in worse shape than me.

Eight of us were left when I looked down at a hand of 8-6. A lousy hand to be sure, but I was big blind, meaning that I'd already put in the pre-flop bet merely by virtue of being two spots to the left of the designated dealer that hand. Four players had called but none had raised, so I was able to see a flop for free, which came Q-8-6. Two pair, which had to be the best hand. Like against Josh, I bet, was raised all-in, called instantly, and saw I was ahead, as he turned over Q-10. But also like against Josh, the river was one of his (eight) outs, a queen that gave him three of a kind.

Instead of him being out and me being above average (and with just two people to outlast), I was "crippled" and very short on chips. I rolled my chair away from the table, stood up and sighed while the dealer counted out the damage. I sat back down still in a foul mood.

Poor guy tried to make me feel better by giving me a "that's poker"-esque line about how he had gotten unlucky earlier and it evens out and blah blah blah ("that's poker" is essentially the poker equivalent of "shit happens") and for his courtesy he nearly got his head bitten off. "Yeah, and he got me earlier in almost the exact same situation!" I said, pointing at Josh. "You're 1-and-1 in those spots, I'm 0-and-2. When do I get to do it to other people?" No answers were forthcoming. I busted shortly thereafter in eighth place, six hours of play having gone for naught.

"It just goes down as an 'L.' No one will ever know all the anguish and thought and pain that went into it." 
– Chris Cree, as told to Stefan Fatsis in ‘Word Freak’

I fired one more bullet (tried again to qualify) Friday night, which may have been a mistake. I played poorly, drew poorly, was ruled against on an adjudication which cost me 5,000 in chips early (always fun to watch a guy get rewarded for living in an ethical gray area), had to watch idiots get rewarded for doing idiotic things (always fun to watch bad behavior and bad play get rewarded) and still would have had at least double my buy-in except for a run-out of x-x-Q-A-10 when I had 9-9 vs. K-J and 3-3, giving the guy with K-J (who had approximately zero business being in the hand after my all-in) an unlikely straight.

Other than that it went well. One of the least enjoyable two-three hours playing poker that I've ever had. I left the casino Friday night pretty much hating poker and thinking that I needed a bit of a break to decompress.

"They have a name for people who quit. They call them quitters." 
– Rose Nylund, played by Betty White on The Golden Girls

Fast forward to late Saturday afternoon, me driving through a rainstorm to Toledo to fire one last bullet. I don't put any stock into astrology (Irish comic Dara O'Briain helped push me off that fence) but I am a Taurus and I concede that I am nothing if not stubborn. 

If not for the downpours I drove through I would have been at a soccer game. But I was not keen on the idea of getting drenched to watch a friendly when I could give qualifying for Sunday one more try. And with both of my friends qualifying Friday, I didn't want to be the only one of the three of us who couldn't make it. (My team lost 6-2 anyway.)

I pretty much tread water until a hand a couple hours after I started playing. I had K-K, raised pre-flop and got two callers. The flop came the four of spades, five of clubs and seven of spades. My play (going all-in) was pretty standard but I wasn't sure what to make of it when both players called. One had A-6 and needed a 3 or 8 for a straight. Another had A-9 of spades and needed any spade for the nut (best) flush. So, I had to dodge both unseen aces, the eight unseen 3s and 8s, and all the unseen spades. Twice. According to CardPlayer's odds calculator, despite having the best hand at the time I am only 40% to win. But I did dodge all those outs twice and tripled my amount in one hand.

The rest of the night wasn't without its share of drama, but I believed I was going to make it after that. And thanks to continuing to run well, I did. At 2:15 a.m., in the infancy of his wedding anniversary day, a guy busted in 10th place and the nine of us survived to Sunday. (Though technically we had already...)

I mentioned before that I hate watching inferior players get lucky and win. It's the blend of my competitiveness and sense of justice. But I have to admit, both in the micro and the macro, sometimes my bad behavior gets rewarded as well.

“Your problem is your blood was rushing down from your head and settling someplace south of the equator!”
– Adam Schiff (played by Steven Hill) to Jack McCoy (Sam Waterston) on ‘Law & Order’ 

One of my favorite TV quotes. I was also going to lead into the following hand with "long periods of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror" but I couldn't find the origin. Plus, I learned that the quote originally refers to warfare. I'd like to think I'm not one to give into the "X is war" triteness or the "X is a microcosm of life/war" trope but I have to admit it's pretty fitting.

Early on during the Sunday restart I looked at A-7. A-7 is the type of hand that new players overrate. Yes, that ace looks nice, and yes, you're probably ahead before the flop, but even if you hit the ace on the flop, A-8 through A-K has you beat, and beat very badly. Similarly, hitting the 7 rarely puts you in a position you can be confident.

So, A-7 is a mediocre hand, but I only had three people behind me and I figured a raise would take it down. That proved incorrect when the big blind called. The flop came A-4-J and it was checked to me.

I figured I would have heard from any ace (he would've bet instead of checking), so I bet again and was called again. The turn came a queen, the second club. Checked to me again. I had no clubs and figured if my opponent had a holding like A-2 of clubs, I needed to protect my hand and make him pay to see if the next card completed the flush. And given how big the pot was at this point and the size of my stack, the appropriate play to accomplish that was to go all-in.

Back to my opponent, who thought about it longer than I thought he would. Then he asked the dealer how much it was. Then he counted out that amount from his stack to see how much would be left over if he called. For the first time it started to dawn on me: "Shit. I may be behind. And he has more chips than I do."

Since I've rambled on about myself without referencing losing in a while, I do need to touch on the fact that this is unique to poker. When the Warriors have played well the whole game to lead by 10 with a minute left, they can't lose that lead in one possession. When the Patriots lead by 10 with a minute left, even if they give up a touchdown on a mental lapse, they'd still be in a dominant position. In poker, you can flush away hours and hours of stack-building with one blunder, one misstep, one rush of blood down from the head settling someplace south of the equator, as Steven Hill so gruffly (and beautifully) put it. Sometimes it feels like you gain chips by the teaspoonful and lose them by the bucketful.

As he thought for what seemed like an eternity, I tried to stay as motionless as possible while self-flagellating how I could've gotten myself into this mess. The notion of the "poker face" is a bit overrated in my view. Saturday night into Sunday morning I played with a guy who essentially talked non-stop. And at one point the guy sitting next to me (with whom I struck up a fast friendship) confided in me that he had no idea when the guy was bluffing and when he had it. I told him I felt the same way.

That I learned later the guy is a pro and was playing the tournament with a buddy on a lark after dumping $4,400 at a separate tournament in west Michigan earlier in the day made me feel better about being unable to read him, and getting outplayed by him in general. Here I was grinding away investing an unhealthy amount of my self-esteem in getting to Sunday (at that point to twice play six hours and not make it would have been crushing) and this tournament was a rounding error to him. He would have needed to win the whole thing to break even for the weekend.

Back to my terror with what I now believed to be an inferior hand. "Ace-king?" my opponent muttered at one point and I thought: "Yes. Yes, I've played this hand exactly like I'd play ace-king. Believe it. Please fold. Please fold. Please fold." The more he thought, especially given his comment, the more I believed he had A-9 or A-10 and I was going to be in bad shape if he called, one card away from being out of the tournament. Eventually he folded and I tried to make my reflexive sigh of relief as inaudible as possible and took the big pot. Like I said, sometimes at a poker table, both in the micro and macro, my bad behavior gets rewarded.

"A W's a W, and an L's an L." 
– Jim Valvano

I eventually made the final two tables (top 18). I had parlayed the 15,000 in chips I got Saturday night into about 600,000 after busting a guy who got aggressive with 9-9 with only a couple players behind him and had the misfortune of my waking up with K-K, almost doubling my stack. Being unable to stand prosperity, I then doubled through a short stack the very next hand when we got it all in with her K-J beating my A-7 when a king and jack hit the board and gave her two pair (that stupid A-7 again).

So I was sitting on about 500K with an approximate average of 700K during the following sequence. 14 players (two tables of seven) remained at this point.

Hand 1: A short-stack goes all-in for 97K. I had already put in 25K (being the big blind that hand) so it was another 72K to me. I counted the pot and determined that it would cost me 72K to win 227K, a proposition where I only have to win at least 32% of the time to make it profitable/positive expected value (I often joke at the poker table that I majored in math in college and now I use it to count chip stacks and calculate pot odds).

Since 7-2 of separate suits (the worst starting hand in poker given the low card values and the inability to make straights or flushes) is still about 30% vs. A-K of the same suit different than either suit in your hand, I am mathematically obliged to call with any two cards, especially the Q-10 I had. I was delighted to see he had 10-9 of spades and the first four of five cards gave him little help: K-A-A-2. Of the 44 unseen cards, three tie (the three 2s, since we would then each play the A-A-2-2-K on the board) and three win (the three 9s). 38 of the 44 send him packing. The dealer peels off the river card, which is a 9.

"Ooh!" the table says, standard operating procedure for a huge shift in fortune. I cringed, then took a deep breath to calm myself. The table, including my opponent, were full of sympathy. I shrugged it off. It was "only" 97K, putting me at 410K, or about 16.5 big blinds when usually 10 is considered the danger/desperation zone. I only needed to be 32% to win the hand to call and I was way more than that at every point before the end. I "got it in good," as the saying goes. That's all you can do.

Hand 2: The same guy who just beat me and another short stack get it all-in pre-flop. He has K-Q, she has A-10, but he catches up. Left for dead a minute ago, his stack is now roughly equal to mine and she is out in 14th place. Doug, who had started dealing at the table a few minutes before, says to him: "You know, you're making me a lot of enemies around here." I laugh louder and harder than anybody.

"The dealer is not responsible for which card comes off the deck, for winning streaks or losing streaks. There are no lucky or unlucky dealers, although sometimes it seems otherwise. Players should treat dealers with respect..." 
– Rule 16.25 of "Poker: Implementing Rules and Guidelines"

Hand 3: The new short stack, who is first to act this hand, goes all-in for what looks to be about 125K. The player to my right, who has more chips than me, also goes all-in. I am next to act and jokingly stage whisper "aces, aces..." while mock putting a spell over the cards. I expect to see a terrible hand that I can easily fold and move onto the next. Instead I see the two black queens.

I laugh in spite of myself. "OK, I have to nit-roll you here," I announce. I am almost certainly going all-in myself and when they see the queens I don't want them to think I was "Hollywooding" them (feigning weakness when I'm strong to trick an opponent). But at the same time I can't be convinced my queens are ahead. Yes, only two hands beat queens (kings and aces) and yes, only one hand is roughly even with queens (ace-king), but given the strength this guy has shown he could easily have one of those hands. A-K is possible, and do I want to be 50-50 (or less when you consider the original all-in player) to survive? Especially since there's 13 of us left and only one is taking home $335, with everybody else getting at least $435?

In the end, I say "I can't fold this hand" and go all-in to join the party. Everybody else folds and I see the original bettor has 9-8 of diamonds and the second bettor has 10-10. My queens are in better shape than I could have imagined: no "overs" (cards above my pair that will beat me if they hit the board). I clap my hands once and stand up. "Hold!" I bark. "One time!"

Doug deals out three cards face-down for the flop. He turns them over and the top card is the queen of diamonds. I give a little fist-pump. While Card Player's odds calculator doesn't calculate odds based on one flop card, given that I was 66% to win the hand before that card, I figure I'm at least 90% to win now.

“Don't you draw the queen of diamonds, boy / she'll beat you if she's able” 
– Eagles, “Desperado"

Whenever you see a team that was 90+% to win then go on to lose (the two examples that come to mind are Northern Iowa and the Atlanta Falcons), where both teams were 99+% to win before unraveling, it's safe to assume there were layers to that comeback. Multiple mental errors, multiple strategical errors, multiple times where one play could have arrested the negative momentum and yet it wasn't made.

In poker, one of the next best things to having your opponent totally dead (no cards or card combination can save them) is to have them drawing to one card on the river out of the 44 left in the deck. The favorite wins these confrontations about 97.7% of the time. 

All this is to say that in poker you can put yourself in a position to win 97.7% of the time and lose ... all at once and through no fault of your own! Atlanta and Northern Iowa have only themselves to blame for blowing games in which they were 97.7% to win. In poker you can work hard and get lucky and be in that 97.7% position and be powerless to watch the one card that beats you hit the felt. And there are stories about that happening (though fortunately I have not witnessed one).

While my percentage is certainly not in that 97-98% range, my opponents are in the position that Texas A&M and the Patriots were, needing multiple things to happen. The card was a diamond, giving the first guy three diamonds and needing two more for a flush. Or a jack and a ten for a straight, but that's unlikely given that the other guy has two tens. And even if he wins I'm going to make a healthy profit on the hand and be near my prior peak. Meanwhile, the other guy needs both of the other two tens in the deck (not bloody likely) or...

The two cards beneath the queen are revealed: a king and a jack. I notice what that means before the rest of the table and say "Whoaoaoaoa!" Now the guy with 10s has 10-J-Q-K and only needs an ace or nine for a straight. "Don't do this to me, Doug," I plead. "Don't do me like this. Please." The turn is a 9. "NooooOOOO!" I wail in a bit of a crescendo, putting my forehead on the edge of the table. I'm not dead yet, though. One of the two 10s will tie as we will all play the straight on the board. But if the board pairs (one of the two nines, three jacks or three kings) it gives me a winning full house. And the miracle queen of hearts would give me four of a kind. Nine wins and two ties aren't great but they're better than the three wins and three ties that caught up to me two hands ago.

The river is a meaningless 6. I clasp my arms behind my head and lean forward in a sort of sitting fetal position. It's over. Just like that. Six hours Friday afternoon, six hours Saturday night, five hours Sunday afternoon, all to lose with Q-Q v 10-10 and 9-8. I look at the five cards on the table, half in disbelief, half hoping that maybe that 6 is really a 9 and if I stare at it long enough I'll have a full house and win the hand.

"It doesn't cost a dime to be nice to people." 
– Sparky Anderson

Appreciation to the dealer and the rest of the table for letting me sit for a few seconds even after the hand was over and the winner had raked in the pot. (I don't understand how college basketball coaches get into the handshake line right after the buzzer in a close win/loss and I still find Tony Bennett's post-game interview after the UMBC game to be, while hitting all the right notes, somewhat weird and creepy that he could be that composed so soon after what happened.)

Eventually I got up and shook the hands of everybody at the table. The guy with the 9-8 of diamonds who finished in 13th, whose table I was at starting Sunday and was great to talk to during both our stints together. The guy who I played with Saturday night, who needed to hit a flush draw Saturday night just to make it to Sunday and had just told me that the chatterbox we played against last night was a former Lions tight end (and, I would learn later, a poker pro). The guy who had the big chip stack that I thought would be mine. The guy in the Cleveland Indians hat who started the whole thing by spiking the 9, full of apology. (I can't help but think that if I'd won that hand against him the cards would have come out differently off the deck and I wouldn't have had queens two hands later. Although maybe you're a fatalist who believes that the same thing would have happened even if I won the hand.) Even the guy who was maddening me and Josh with his glacial pace of play.

I think at this point it's come across that I put a lot of myself into competitive endeavors (my Scrabble friends would undoubtedly agree). And given the relatively small stakes I probably overreacted with the hand clap, fist pump, etc., which is one reason I went out of my way to shake everybody's hand on the way out. It is a game, after all. Games are supposed to be fun. And class is the one thing it doesn't cost anything to have, even if I sometimes forget that.

"You are what your record says you are." 
– Bill Parcells

I finish in 12th place and earn $435, a $180 profit. The prize pool was very top heavy (first place was more than $8,000), so including tipping the dealers (I jokingly asked that my tip be earmarked so that Doug would get none of it, the Days Inn stay from Sunday early morning to Sunday mid-morning, gas money, buffet dinner on Friday, etc., I barely got above break-even for the weekend. 

At the time I was convinced that last run-out cost me about $1,000 since the average payout of everyone remaining was about $1,700 and I would have been above average. But who knows? I might have finished ninth and gotten the same $435 as for 12th. Regardless, it was a better outcome than if I hadn't driven down Saturday afternoon to fire one more bullet. 572 times people came to the window to buy in. 560 times they busted finishing worse than I was when I did. And 10 more would walk away losers as well, so close and yet so far from the big prize. 572 entries, 571 losers.

And though I got a boost of confidence, it's waned since. My ensuing three tournaments I haven't sniffed the money, twice busting embarrassingly early, reminders that I had to run incredibly well to get to the point where I did in Toledo and that nothing is guaranteed. But, bringing it full circle, the goose egg statistically will happen 80-90% of the time. It's about reducing that 80-90% and, when I cash, cashing for enough to offset the losses.

And I feel like I'm good enough to do that. One of the frustrating things about losing in poker is that there are times you feel like you're getting better but it's not showing in the tangible results. And by you, of course, I mean me.

"So you wanna play poker for a living, huh?" 
– ESPN poker commentator Lon McEachern

That quote comes from this video (specifically, the hand from 2:00-3:30):



When you consider the fact that I was playing an $85 buy-in and these guys were playing a $10,000 buy-in, that makes these at least 117 times worse. Then when you consider the difference in magnitude of the prize increases, the closeness to the title WSOP Main Event Champion ... 1,000 times worse? 10,000? I'm at the point where watching the Affleck-Duhamel hand makes me cry like the end of Bambi. I feel like if that happened to me I would be catatonic for hours.

Remember when my friends thought it was harsh to lose about 20,000 in chips? How does it compare to losing about 40,000 in chips when you're within sniffing distance of your goal, costing you another $170 to get there? How does it compare to losing 100,000 in chips on a river three-outer? How does it compare to losing 400,000 in chips from an approximately 90% position and having 0 instead of about 1,000,000?

It's just a matter of believing it will even out over time, perhaps in one fell swoop. How many $100 coin flips would you lose if you knew you were going to win a $10,000 one? (99, duh.)

And it's important to remember, in my case, I'm not there at all if my 60%-to-lose kings early Saturday night lose. I'm not there if my stupid all-in play Sunday morning gets picked off. Things even out in the macro, but sometimes they even out in the micro too.

Getting back to McEachern's question, which was posed to me by a friend recently, if I ever saw myself in that position some day. My initial response was to laugh. First, my game is nowhere near good enough. Second, and perhaps more importantly, at least when I have a rough day at my office job, I don't come home with less money than I had before because of it. And, as my thousands of words above probably make clear, I don't take losing well internally. I struggle to make sense of the randomness.

And how sick do you have to be to go pro at something with a 90% failure rate, every hand and every tournament?

Do you have any questions you’d like to ask? Would you like to commiserate because your team sucks? Drop me a line! You can email me atinplaylose@gmail.com, and when we get enough questions and comments gathered up, I’ll do another Hate Mail edition of In Play Lose.

Thursday, May 31, 2018

7-Up


Loris Karius picks the ball from his net, and picks up the pieces of his career

THIS seems to happen at this time every year: there is a whole lot for me to talk about, and yet I’m usually too busy with work to ever have the opportunity to write about it. So, now that I have a few hours here, I’m going to spew out a whole lot of thoughts and probably make all sorts of grammatical mistakes and probably also say a few things that will piss people off in the process. Good. There is so much stuff going on that I almost don’t know where to begin.

Seven thoughts now, as it was my squared-seven birthday last Friday, and I have been watching all of these things take place from the 7 x 7 city:

• As a former goalkeeper, and a lifetime member of the Goalkeepers Union, I absolutely cringed for Loris Karius on Sunday. Karius, the Liverpool goalkeeper, made a pair of unforgivable errors in the Champions League final which gifted Real Madrid a pair of goals in Liverpool’s 3:1 defeat, and it made me feel sick to my stomach. All three of Real’s goals were met with a moment of shock and awe, one of which – a stunning bicycle kick from Gareth Bale – was one of the most beautiful goals you’ll ever see, and was met with a standing ovation from even Liverpool fans, having witnessed a moment of pure greatness, the sort of which transcends which color shirt you’re wearing and is worthy of applause from either side.
But, of course, the other two times Kiev fell silent after Madrid goals, it was due to stunned disbelief. They simply could not believe the display of complete and utter incompetence on the part of the Liverpool keeper which had yielded two goals to the opposition. Not even Real could believe it. They didn’t really even know how they should go about celebrating.
And it made me sick, as a former goalkeeper, because a goalkeeping error is the worst thing that can befall your team. You have to be a little bit off to be a keeper to begin with, given that your idea of a great game is one where you don’t have much of anything to do, and as the last line of defense, you’re expected to bail out all of your dumb defenders in front of you after they go about making dumb plays. Your centre back fails to clear, a shot comes in and you’re quick to react and you push the ball wide. The corner kick winds up looking like a jailbreak, with the offense running rampant, you parry a shot over the bar and bark at everyone who lined up like an idiot and didn’t mark anyone, but it’s all good. You have their backs. But when you’re the goalkeeper, no one has your back. (And if they do, they’re probably out of position, so you should yell at them, anyway.) It’s all on you, there’s nothing but twine behind you and if you mistake, there is nowhere to hide.
The first goalkeeping flub by Karius was one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen on a soccer pitch: he fields the ball, he goes to roll it out to a fullback to start the play, he tunnel visions it much like a QB throwing an interception into coverage, Real’s Karim Benzema just sort of sticks his leg out and deflects the ball and it rolls oh so slowly and settles in the goal just inside the far post, the luckiest of lucky strikes, a slow roller akin to watching, in slow motion, the vase my cat would knock off the table: it’s falling, disaster is coming, you cannot believe this is happening but here it comes. I’ve been either playing or watching soccer for more than 40 years and I’ve never seen anything like that. It was so weird that everyone just sort of stopped, the crowd went silent, and you’re first instinct was to say, “did that just happen?” It made no sense and no one knew how to react.

WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!?!?!?!?

His second major error was one of those classic mistakes akin to the old mantra in baseball that the center fielder has the hardest time judging the ball hit right at him. It was another strike from Bale, it knuckled a bit, Karius was clearly of two minds about it, not knowing whether to try to catch or try to punch, and he wound up somehow contriving to accomplish neither. His first error was so weird that it was hard to blame anyone – Liverpool players were yelling at assorted officials in the aftermath, since clearly
something illegal must have happened in order for a goal that strange to have occurred – but the second gaffe was all on him, an enormous blunder which put Real up by two goals and ended the discussion, for all intents and purposes.
And as I say, as I’m watching this, I’m absolutely cringing. Flashing through my mind are these moments where I did something stupid like let a ball go through my legs, or lost a cross in the sun and spilled it at the feet of an opposing striker. You’re entrusted with keeping order, with keeping things sane, and then you goof up and you concede a goal in a game where a goal is often all the other side needs. It’s a truly horrible feeling. My last year as a keeper, I was also a captain, and we contrived to somehow score three own goals and after each one, I made a point to tell the others on my squad that it was a team game, that it wasn’t one guy’s single error which led to the mistake and the opposing goal. But when you’re the keeper and you fuck up? Oh man. The dirty looks are everywhere. Your teammates are furious with you. They’re so angry and they have a right to be, because it’s your job to be perfect. Nothing less is good enough.
Karius is a young keeper, he improved this season and he is an excellent shot stopper who made several terrific saves during the game to keep Liverpool close. Nevertheless, he and his Belgian back-up have been rather eccentric back there, inducing migraines at Anfield and driving Jürgen Klopp slightly nuts. They’d already been pursuing Alison, the Brazilian #1 who plies his trade for A.S. Roma, but given how comically awful Karius was in Kiev, and given that Liverpool still has some of the £150m or so laying around that they got for selling Coutinho to an overpaying Barcelona, the price to acquire Alison from Roma just got even higher – and it was already thought to be around £60m to begin with, which is an outrageous sum for a keeper, but if you’re Liverpool, and your keeper just cost you the Champions League, you’re probably going to pay it.
Which sucks for Karius, who basically lost his job right before our eyes. He was, of course, despondent afterwards, and he took to twitter to apologize to the Liverpool fans. In the aftermath, Klopp and the club said all the right things about how they would support him and such, but this is a cold business. It wouldn’t surprise me if he never plays for Liverpool again, nor ever plays in a Champions League final again – a pretty cruel death of a dream. The fact is that there are tonnes of small errors here and there which ultimately determine outcomes most of the time. It’s rare it gets decided thanks to some sort of one individual’s calamitous, catastrophic mistake. (Or, in this case, two.) Liverpool’s wonderful anthem is entitled You’ll Never Walk Alone, but I’m not sure many have made a lonelier walk off the pitch than Karius did when it was over.

Jesus, this goal was beautiful


• 
Real Madrid celebrated winning the Champions League with all of the excitement of someone being told they need to go in for a root canal. In the aftermath, you had Ronaldo and Bale talking about their time in Madrid in past tense, with the latter having been benched this season and having indicated, at least indirectly, that he wanted to leave, and the former, after having perpetually bickered with the club’s top brass over the years, sounding as if he may have finally had enough. The game was so weird to begin with, what with Real having two of their three goals gifted them by the Liverpool keeper, that there was hardly a sense of triumph about the proceedings. Indeed, some of the Real players’ first reaction seemed to be to want to go over and console the despondent Liverpool keeper. They like winning, of course, but they didn’t like winning in that way.
But the whole endeavor was muted from the 30th minute onward, which was the time when the whole game changed and literally every ounce of joy and excitement left the stadium in Kiev, because that was the moment when Sergio Ramos decided to try and break Mo Salah’s arm, and very nearly succeeded. As it was, Salah had to leave the game. Up to that point, Liverpool had the better of the game. They were playing their attacking style, Real was flustered and flummoxed at the back, and the Reds seemed to have the advantage. From that moment on, there was an air of inevitable gloom and doom to the proceedings. Without their star, Liverpool was never the same and neither was the game. Frankly, it didn’t even seem like the Real players were having much fun.

Piece of shit

And it’s hard to have fun in a game when you have a guy who goes out and deliberately injures opponents. One of my favorite stories of all time involved an NHL team whom I happen to like, who had a player with a bad habit of deliberately injuring opponents, and while supporting him in public, their response in practice was to stand back and watch the guy get pummeled in a fight after getting into a scrap. The message was clear: you don’t do that. You put your teammates on the line when you do something like that, not to mention yourself, because guys on the other side are going to be more than willing to try and settle the score. Although I never advocate violence, it wouldn’t have surprised me if, down two goals in the closing minutes, a Liverpool player had gone up to Ramos and clocked him one.
It was a dirty and disgusting play and it ruined the Champions League final. Don’t believe me? Here’s a pretty good analysis. It’s a dirty play by a guy whose been thrown out of more games in La Liga than any other player in history for a reason. Your reputation preceeds you. It ain’t an accident or a coincidence when it happens more than once. I’m perfectly happy to see a guy like Christiano Ronaldo win literally everything, because he’s one of the best players in history, but the problem is that whenever Ronaldo wins a trophy at Real Madrid, it also means that a piece of shit like Sergio Ramos wins one as well. 
And it really bothered me that the collection of dimwits and hare brains employed by FOX Sports to do commentary here in the U.S. didn’t see that for what it was, which is an incredibly dirty play by a guy who is a well-documented shithouse. (Given that these clowns are calling the World Cup, we are in for a long month of June.) WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING? There was nothing accidental about that. Nothing. If you can’t call an obvious act of the game’s dark arts what it is, then you have no business calling a game.
Injuries suck. They suck and we have to begrudgingly accept them as a part of the game – any and every game – and in doing so, we also try to downplay their impact on the final result. This particular injury pretty much ruined the game. And it also might potentially ruin one of the better stories of the World Cup. Salah didn’t break an arm or dislocate a shoulder, which he very much could have done, but now it’s a race against time to get him healthy enough to play in Russia this summer for Egypt – a side that you should root for, because it’s a team whose fans are positively desperate for a little of the joy at the moment, given the political mess that has ensnarled the nation and even filtered over into the football grounds – the one place many Egyptians had come to regard as a place of free expression which is now rapidly being taken away. Salah has become a true hero in leading them to the World Cup, in scoring 40+ goals for Liverpool and putting himself in discussion for the Ballon d’Or. Him going down in Kiev was such a downer. Him having been taken down by a cheap shot made it all the more worse.
 


Thou shalt not score!

• When the Washington Capitals won Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals by a 3:2 score over the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday, it marked the first time a Washington, D.C., sports team won a game in a final round of any sport in decades. Little did I know, as I was hanging out in the pouring rain with my new Honduran friends while doing a conga line with a Samba band as D.C. United won the MLS Cup in 1997, that I was partaking in pretty much the last moment in time that any professional sports team from Washington, D.C. would ever have any joy ever. If the Hall of Lose is ever to open, it’s quite possibly going to be in Washington, because D.C. sports are the worst. 
But now the Capitals, after years of failing to reach the lofty heights befitting their talent – the result of perpetually being unable to play good hockey while having their hands around their own throats – have somehow managed to slay the dragon that is the Pittsburgh Penguins, and they now find themselves three games away from winning an NHL title. And this is Caps-friendly household, mind you, as The Official Spouse of In Play Lose hails from that area, and I happened to be living there for a spell during the 1997-1998 season, which was the one and only time the Caps made the Stanley Cup Finals, at which point they were promptly swept by Detroit. I’ve got a soft spot for the Caps, and even went to a couple of their home games at the old Capital Centre in Landover before they moved into their new arena later that year in downtown Washington. My rooting interest here is clear.
That they’re playing Vegas is absolutely ridiculous, because Vegas is an expansion team, but in the absurd amalgamation of bad ideas and weird franchises that is the NHL, the fact that an expansion team is now playing for a title seems almost appropriate. I mean, this is a league that as much as gave franchises away to Disney and Blockbuster Video for the fuck of it. It got held hostage by two guys who wanted to create a team in the Bay Area and permitted them to gut the franchise they already owned in Minnesota in order to do it. They keep pouring money by the millions down ratholes in Miami and Phoenix, thinking that it’s somehow a good idea. So why not Vegas? I’m down with Vegas. Fuck yeah! A Washington-Vegas final has got to be more appealing to the league brass than the potential Tampa Bay-Winnipeg final, which would have drawn tens of tens of American viewers.
What’s funny about this match-up is that you have what is, without a doubt, one of the most successful expansion franchises in the history of sports against a Capitals franchise whose expansion season was, as guest columnist Geoff Thevenot pointed out, quite possibly the worst team in the history of the game of hockey – and, as pointed out in this column from future Seattle NHL beat writer Geoff Baker, the NHL learning from the mistakes made in that disastrous original Caps’ season led to an evolution in league-wide thinking about how to handle expansion, an evolution which ultimately made it possible for Vegas to have the opportunity to be this good, this fast. (An opportunity which, to their credit, they didn’t screw up.)
And I’ve been sort of laughing about the Vegas Golden Knights success from afar all season. It was about the time I came across the story of how the Ducks had flown in to play the day of the game rather than the night before (and I don’t think they were the first team to do this) that one on the NBA’s greatest truisms – “L.A. nightlife is undefeated” – had come to fully roost in the NHL. Because L.A. nightlife ain’t got nothing on Vegas, not when you can go and patronize the private bar or the high-energy nightclub or the high rollers casino without leaving your team hotel and then stagger down The Strip to the arena in the morning.

The Last Sonics meet again

• 
First off, a history lesson here. When I was playing high school basketball, the state of Washington didn’t have a 3-point line. However, the state of Idaho did, and we’d play a few games over there every year. The 3-point shot was something of a novelty at that point, and since, of course, guys on our team were excited about shooting threes, the first time we played a game in Idaho with 3-point line, our power forward, who played at the top of the key, and our shooting guard, who liked playing on the baseline, were both so excited about the prospect of shooting threes, because threes were cool, that our team basically went improv in our regular offense, with those two guys taking a couple steps from their usual places and winding up on the other side of the 3-point line. Both of them started shooting them, and both of them started making them, which wasn’t that much of a surprise, because we had good shooters, and the shot wasn’t so markedly different from the usual 2’s we were tossing up. It was at the point, however, that our guys were making threes that the big center then started to beast underneath and the small forward easily slashed to the basket. This was because the defense had to crawl out further to guard the shooters, and we’d thus created more space on the floor in which to work. There was no conscious plan for this, mind you. It came out of the flow of the game. What seemed obvious to even my teenage mind, at that point, was that shooting threes made a helluva lot more sense than shooting twos. You got more points, and you created more space on the floor.
So you don’t have to tell me the value of shooting threes. I’ve been down with this idea for 30 years. Three is worth more than two. It’s simple math. But one of the things that people make a mistake about, in thinking about basketball, is thinking that it’s a math problem when it is, in fact, a logic problem, in that the whole game comes down to figuring out what works. I’ve used this notion to try and explain to people the phenomenon of the so-called “hot hand.” Often times, the hot hand is not simply a result of one guy “being in the zone” but is, in fact, the result of a team discovering a match-up advantage and then going, time and again, to what is working in the game. You have to figure out what is working on the floor and, even more importantly, when something isn’t working, you have to stop doing it!
And in Game 7 of both the Eastern and Western Conference Finals, we witnessed both the Boston Celtics and Houston Rockets literally shoot themselves out of the NBA Finals. On Monday night, in their 87:79 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Celtics shot 7/39 from three in one of the most wretched displays of shooting that I have ever seen … up until Tuesday, that is, when the Rockets shot 7/44 from three, and contrived to somehow miss 27 threes in a row, as they coughed up a huge 1st-half lead and wound up losing 101:92 to the Golden State Warriors. It was an absolute brick barrage. It was some of the worst, ugliest basketball that I have ever seen, and what boggled my mind about it was how both teams seemed to have no other plan for what else to do. They were going to launch threes, by God, because three is worth more than two, never mind the fact that two from a drive to the basket, or even one from a free throw getting hacked on the way to the basket and making one of two, was better than making zero when you throw another brick from behind the line.
Now, in the case of the Rockets, it was pretty obvious what was going on: fatigue was setting in. The Rockets got off to hot starts in both Game 6 and Game 7, jumping out to double-digit leads in both, only to fizzle and fade. The Rockets were an old team to begin with – five of their rotation regulars were over 30 – they had an extremely small rotation, and that rotation got even smaller thanks to the unfortunate hamstring injury Chris Paul suffered in Game 5. And the Rockets had to work so hard in these games on both ends of the floor, not only on the defensive end, where they were terrific, but also on offense. For all of their well-orchestrated attempts at generating mismatches, the Rockets got held under 100 points in five straight games. It was a slog and you could see the legs going in those last two games, the shots from three were getting flatter, and the shot quality getting progressively worse.
And shot quality is something that is hard to judge. A lot of commentators have said that, while missing 27 straight in Game 7, so many of those shots were “good looks,” but given that they were clearly laboring, how good were those actual looks, in fact? And in both of these games, the Rockets fell prey to the curse of irrational confidence. The Rockets throw up a tonne of threes, going for the sheer volume approach in lieu of having great shooters. They have got some guys who can make some threes, pretty good shooters but not great ones who’ve been empowered by Mike D’Antoni to shoot, shoot, and shoot some more. And one of the perils and pitfalls which can befall you is that guys who aren’t great shooters take some not very good shots early in the game which happen to go in, and are emboldened to keep taking not very good shots from then on, and don’t know enough to stop taking not very good shots. This is what happened to the 76ers in Game 2 of their series with the Celtics. They bombed away from three, a lot of them being bad shots which happened to go in, and then kept taking the same bad shots long after they’d stopped going in. In both Games 6 and 7, Houston was hot from three early, and then the shooting went off a cliff. And it’s a vicious cycle – with each one you miss, the pressing need to make one grows, which leads to taking progressively worse and worse shots.
And if you’re the Celtics, and the three guys in your backcourt are going 8 of 42 from the floor and, furthermore, you have Jayson Tatum getting to the basket at will and dunking on LeBron, a pretty good idea down the stretch is, you know, maybe putting the ball more in Tatum’s hands, and maybe not to be having your guards chucking up bad, contested shots from three. Is was a mixed mess going on in the backcourt: Jaylen Brown (3-12 from three, 5-18 overall) had shown himself to be reliable from that distance in the playoffs and was just having an off-night all-around on the offensive end; Terry Rozier (0-10, 2-14), meanwhile, picked a bad time to turn back into a pumpkin and seemed like he was pressing when the ball wouldn’t go in the basket, and he took some really bad shots down the stretch in the 4th Quarter; Marcus Smart (0-4, 1-10), meanwhile, is the worst of all worlds in that he can’t actually shoot but is so irrationally confident that he’ll never know when to stop, and as much as I love his heart and desire and defensive tenacity, the fact of the matter is that a guy shooting 23% from three in the playoffs, who refuses to stop taking them, is not ultimately helping you win games.
It was madness watching this stuff. I wanted to bash my head against a brick wall – an opportunity that was present in both arenas, given the number of bricks being tossed. For godsake, would you try something else! In Boston, it meant put the ball in Tatum’s hands and let him run the offense down the stretch. It also meant, oh, I don’t know, maybe try running and pushing the tempo, seeing as how Cleveland’s transition defense is six kinds of crap, and maybe take the ball to the basket, since Cleveland’s rim protection is also crap, and maybe not get into an 86-possession game and turn into statues against an older, slower team who wants to play a slow game and can, in fact, guard statues. In Houston, the Rockets are getting beat down the stretch and need Harden to make a play, and there he is standing 40 feet from the basket while Eric Gordon’s trying to go 1-on-1 and jacking up a 30-footer, the sort of irrational confidence shot which stopped going in hours before. TRY SOMETHING ELSE!

But this has long been a criticism of Mike D’Antoni-coached teams. They’re basically one-trick ponies and, once you figure them out in the playoffs, they don’t have any sort of a Plan B. Now, to be fair here, Chris Paul was the Plan B. The whole point of Houston getting Chris Paul was to give him the ball when the primary action of a play blows up and let him carve out a good shoot in the mid-range – a shot which literally no other guy on the Rockets seemingly ever takes. But without Paul, the Rockets seemed both out of gas and out of ideas. They just kept doing what didn’t work, with tired legs, to boot, and all they could say afterwards is “well, we didn’t make them and they did.” It’s a strange style of play in that it’s based on empirical data and, yet, is also seemingly intended to make the game more random, given the wild sorts of variances which when you shoot from so deep. Jeez, it was tough to watch, but given the tendency of both D’Antoni and also Brad Stevens to keep giving green lights to guys who take bad shots and do not know when to stop, I am not sure just how much either of the losing sides in the conference finals actually learned.

• One of the perils of young, ascending teams accelerating their timeline is that of the lofty expectations which follow. The Boston Celtics just came within a game of reaching the finals while missing the two guys we all thought would be their two best players this season, Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. The immediate thought which springs to mind in the aftermath of their loss to the Cavs is to say, “wow, just think of how good they’re going to be next year! They weren’t even supposed to be in this place in 2018! They were playing with house money!”
I would anticipate that, come next fall, Boston will put forth a great team. All signs are pointing to it. I think they have the potential to be great. Having said that, we would do well to look at 2018 as being a missed opportunity. Any time you get into the conference finals, and you take a 3-2 lead, you have to make the most of that chance. There are plenty of cases in history where teams who looked like they were on the verge of greatness did not, in fact, reach that pinnacle again.
I thought Boston could win the series. In terms of rosters, I thought they had a better team than Cleveland. Obviously, the Cavs have LeBron, who is a cyborg, and his mere presence legitimately narrows the talent gap between the Cavs and pretty much every team in the East, but this series was right there for the taking and the Celtics clanged it away off the back iron.
Boston’s got an easier time of things in terms of decision making going forward in the East, but I’m not sure what Houston does. Four of the five over-30 guys in their rotation are now free agents, including Chris Paul, who is eligible for a 5-year, $219m contract. I have no doubt that there was some nudzh-nudzh wink-wink agreements going on last summer when Paul orchestrated his exit from L.A. to Houston last summer (but don’t call it tampering, whatever you do), but if I’m the Rockets, having just watched my best chance to beat the Warriors go up in smoke when my oft-injured, 33-year-old point guard injured his hamstring in Game 5, how excited am I to be paying him $46m when he’s 38 years old? YIKES! And if you want to just run in back, you’re not going to get the likes of Trevor Ariza & Co. to take 1-year deals. It’s hard to be running it back for a year when three years from now it’s likely to be really sticky.
They have to also re-sign Clint Capela, the only real young and athletic player on the roster, an RFA who a bad team with cap space might be inclined to throw $80m or more at just to fuck with the Rockets and see if they’ll hold their nose and match it, thus putting themselves into further salary cap purgatory. Oh yeah, and James Harden is about to start his DP super max extension. The Rockets want to win, but I am not sure that the new ownership wants to pay $60m or more in luxury taxes in order to do it. We shall see.

It would be easier for Houston, of course, if they could somehow dump the $42m remaining on Ryan Anderson’s contract, seeing how Anderson has become so unplayable that the eight minutes he was on the floor in Game 7 did wonders to cost them their season. (That 4/$80m albatross of a deal being proof that even great GMs like Daryl Morey screw up from time to time.) There are lots of far-fetched scenarios of somehow landing LeBron in the summer time, and while I’m sure Daryl Morey’s come up with several thousand of those in his head, all of them are dependent upon gutting the team he has now and convincing other teams to take stuff from Houston that they really don’t want. This is the nature of a salary-capped league. At some point, the costs of doing business catch up to you. I’m not sure if Houston will wind up being more than a one-off team, but that doesn’t mean it was the wrong idea. I commend the Rockets for going for it in a time when so many other teams are willing to just mail it in and build for 4-5 years from now, a mentality which often proves to be a losing one.

• This next one is probably going to annoy some people and I don’t really care if it does. One of the mantras we live by here at In Play Lose is a quote by Kingsley Amis: “if you can’t annoy someone, there is little point to writing.” I’ve been meaning to write this for pretty much the entirety of the 99 games that the Houston Rockets played this year, of which I wound up seeing quite a lot of, but the response which I’ve seen and heard from fans in the aftermath of their 99th and last game of the year gives me the impetus to finally write it, as opposed to anything specific which took place in the previous 98 – that impetus being what I read and heard from a whole bunch of people who started whining about the “biased” officiating in Game 7.
Seriously, stop it already. Just stop. If you truly believe that, then why are you even watching? 
You want to get a better sense of what “biased” officiating could actually look like? Go back and watch Lakers-Kings. Go back and listen to Mark Cuban yell “your game is fucking rigged” at David Stern after Wade got awarded a free throw seemingly every time a Dallas Maverick breathed on him. Go back to 1993 and watch Phoenix shoot 64 free throws in a Game 7 against the Sonics mere days after the NBA prematurely leaked their Finals promos on NBC showing Jordan and Charles Barkley. I’ve known countless people who were in and around that Sonics team in 1993, and I’m not sure a single one of them, deep down, doesn’t think it wasn’t rigged – but they don’t want to believe that, either, because if that’s true, then what’s the point of it all?
But I don’t think any of those were rigged. I just thought the officials were TERRIBLE, which can happen sometimes. Always keep Hanlon’s razor in mind at times like this: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. And I get on officials at times as well. Personally, I think some of them have rabbit ears, glass jaws, and seem to think that people paid an enormous amount of money to come and watch them officiate. And there are bad officials, to be sure. I wish they were better, and there was a lot of frustration all about the NBA this season stemming from the fact that they aren’t better – but then again, who’d want to do that job in the first place?
Players and teams do get rough whistles sometimes. That’s naturally going to happen. I would say that the Warriors probably got the better of it on that front in Game 7 – not because of any bias, but because of the fact that over the course of a playoff series in the NBA, the officiating tends to favor the defense, insofar as that they’re less apt to reward offensive players with bail out fouls when they make bad plays. If you play bad offense – which the Rockets did in droves in Game 7 – you can’t be expecting the officials to save your ass.
And I’ve seen, time and again, that officials tend to be more favorable towards the defenses in the playoffs. It annoyed the hell out of me in 2016, of course, because the Cavs decided that the best way to defend the Warriors was to grab Klay Thompson and Steph Curry on every screen and dare the officials to call it – which is exactly what they should have done! That’s smart defense! You put the onus on the refs, and if the refs let it go, you keep doing it. This isn’t a complaint on my part about 2016. This is me commending Cleveland for coming up with a strategy that enabled them to win a title. It was the right way for them to play. And I’ve seen that happen now time and again in the playoffs. The defenses are going to be given a little more leeway here and there, and once you get the sense that’s how it going to be called, your team had better adjust to the way the game is being called.
And to be perfectly blunt, after watching the Rockets fairly closely for most of this past season, I can go back in my memory of watching the NBA – which goes all the way back to the Celtics playing the Suns in the 1976 Finals – and in those 42 years’ of time, I cannot think of a single team that has less of a right to bitch and whine and complain about the officials than this year’s Houston Rockets, who employ two of the biggest foul hunters that the game has ever seen in Chris Paul and James Harden, and whose frequently being rewarded for said behavior makes them the single-most annoying team to watch in the league. And it pisses me off to say that, because Paul and Harden are great players and I want to see them do great things.
And Harden is great. I say this with complete admiration for the sort of dedication that Harden has exhibited over the years not only to improving his game, but also to mastering the ability to fool the referees. He’s mastered his stepback, and does it with such precision, that he can frequently travel while making that move and the officials will give him the benefit of the doubt. He throws himself into defenders on his way to the hole, or grabs a defender and tugs the guy into him, and he still has the strength and the skill to be able to get up a quality shot. His mastery of this sort of stuff is truly admirable.
Like I say, this is just good strategy. Fooling officials, or pushing the rules to the brink and putting the onus upon officials to make calls, is a part of every game. That football team I used to root for when I cared about football, the Seattle Seahawks, won a Super Bowl through playing overly aggressive defense and daring officials to throw a flag on every play. Alabama does this in college football as well – and, in fact, they lost the NCAA title to Clemson two years ago after the Clemson receivers figured out they could shove the Alabama defenders back. Soccer players dive because they know the gravity of being awared a penalty or a free kick – huge scoring opportunities in a game where scoring is impossible. Hell, now sabermatricians are even trying to statistically quantify it in baseball when they talk about pitch framing – which is, at it’s root, a ploy by catchers to fool umpires into calling balls as strikes. All of this sort of stuff is fair game, in my opinion. You play to win, and you do whatever that takes. Some people think this is cheating. I happen to think that it is good strategy.
I acknowledge the value of that sort of stuff, but it doesn’t mean that I like it. And if you’re going to do this sort of stuff, and the refs are not going to reward you for it, then you don’t get to bitch, because you’ve been crying wolf the whole time.
Twice early in Game 7, I saw James Harden get legitimately fouled and not get the call because he flopped. He flopped like a fish and he embellished the play. And it’s not okay for officials to be missing calls – those were fouls, so get the calls right – but the message at that point should have been loud and clear to Harden, and to everyone else on the Rockets: the officials weren’t interested in rewarding any of those sorts of ploys, and went so far to let the annoyance of Harden flopping trump the actual play. They weren’t having it, so stop doing it. Another key play during the 3rd Quarter of the game which made the Rockets apoplectic was properly explained by the NBA referees: if James Harden doesn’t grab the screener, it might be an offensive foul, but there he goes grabbing Jordan Bell and dragging him. He was trying to game the system again, and the officials weren’t having it.
The Rockets were called for fewer fouls, shot more free throws, and the entire course of the first half was dictated by Klay Thompson drawing three fouls in the first six minutes of the game. Literally none of that is in keeping with the notion that the officials were “biased” against the Rockets. The Rockets lost the game because they got tired, missed 27 threes, and because they put Ryan Anderson out there to be turned into BBQ chicken by Steph Curry during the key stretch of the 3rd Quarter. They’re a team that was wholly dependent all season on Harden’s ability to manufacture free throws for himself. Maybe instead of complaining about “biased” officiating, people should wonder just how wise it is for a team to be so dependent one guy to constantly hunt fouls – and pull fast ones – on opponents and officials alike in order to be successful. At some point, they catch on, and the joke might wind up being on you.





•    … aaaand, we’ve save the dumbest for last.
Step 1: read this article by Ben Detrick of The Ringer.
Step 2: commence facepalming repeatedly.
What the actual fuck are you doing, Bryan Colangelo? If not you, then whomever it is in your family, or whomever it is who is close to you. WHAT ARE YOU DOING? And I suppose it could be a set-up, a long con, someone who has a vendetta against Colangelo and has it out for him … except, whomever it is who would have that vendetta would seem far more likely to be the source of this information to The Ringer, as opposed to just being some random dude who is tech savvy and who thinks all of those burner accounts are “weird.” I mean, that could also be true, I suppose – there are enough Hinkie cultists out there in 76ers fandom who still consider it an affront that The Process got short-circuited by the NBA and handed over to Jerry Colangelo and his kid that one might go looking for this sort of thing. What’s far more likely, of course, given the circumstance, is that someone who has an axe to grind with Bryan Colangelo, and who knows about this weird and creepy burner account behavior, decided to spill the beans. And while this outstanding article by The Ringer makes no direct claim that all of these accounts are, in fact, being operated by Bryan Colangelo, there are far, far too many coincidences going on here.

And it’s one thing to have an account that amounts to a listening post – which is what the @phila1234567 account, that Colangelo admits to maintaining, clearly is. I’m sure that every team has one of those. It’s a gabby, gossipy league, and it never hurts to do some reconnaissance. But it’s another thing entirely to start trashing your predecessor, to start trashing your predecessor in a completely different job, to start trashing your own players, and then to leak confidential medical information to reporters – the last of which is most definitely a fireable offense, and the second to last of which probably should be.
But Colangelo is fairly notoriously thin-skinned, and this is the sort of thing you resort to do, in this day and age, when you’re that sort of person. You feel as if you have some blanket of anonymity online, but the bottom line is that you can, and will, get found out. It’s completely reckless of him – or, of whomever might be doing this in his behalf. And if you haven’t guessed already, I doubt it isn’t him. The coincidence of The Ringer calling up the 76ers, informing them of this story, and then having three of those burner accounts immediately going private and going dark is just far too rich. If I’m wrong, well, I’ll gladly admit as such. But something is rotten in Denmark, Pennsylvania.
And Bryan Colangelo has to go here. He’s compromised, one way or another. The 76ers can’t afford this in a summer where they are one player away from being a legit Eastern Conference champion. The draft is in three weeks, for heaven’s sake. You can’t have your GM even remotely implied in this sort of stuff if you want to woo PG13 or LeBron or convince Kawhi it’s worth it to be traded here. This is a complete disaster for the Sixers. Owner Josh Harris needs to cut bait here, needs to tell Bryan Colangelo that he needs to resign and fall on this sword. I would suggest Harris then reach out to former Cavs GM David Griffin about the job because, if nothing else, his time in Cleveland has served him well when it comes to dealing with drama and putting out fires.
What a mess. What a complete sham. And how 2018 is this scandal? This is the most 2018 scandal imaginable. The more that I read about this, the more dumbstruck that I am. Seriously, how naïve do you have to be to think that, given your position as a less-than-popular GM of an NBA team, this isn’t going to somehow be figured out eventually? Everything gets figured out eventually in this day and age. There are far fewer secrets than ever before. I’m just confounded that this even occurred, and that an exec of a professional sports franchise (or someone who is really close to him) was dumb enough to think this could be gotten away with. It is absolutely mind-boggling.
And also funny, I should add. It is downright hilarious that people in such a position of authority could be so reckless and so naïve.



• Bonus 8th buzzard point, which occurred on Thursday night: what the hell did J.R. Smith just do? Did he really just forget the score? My god. Time and score, J.R. Time and score. Good lord. What the hell just happened?