The Weird Cup

The World Cup draw occurred on Friday in Brazil, an event which used to be somewhat overshadowed but has become a spectacle all to itself. It is of vital import to the 32 teams who have qualified for next year's event. The draw is usually a source of a fair amount of consternation, along with accusations of the host nation rigging the draw, and is fertile ground for punditry of all sorts. And since I am prone to punditry, and had some time to kill at McCarron and SFO aeroports over the weekend, I figured that I may as well join in the fun.

These are my quick thoughts I jotted down off the top of my head about each Group, divided into four categories: those who are looking strong (beast), those who are on the rise (yeast), those who appear to be regressing or don't impress me (least), and the turkeys waiting to be carved (feast). Some of these groups are brutal, some suck, and some are just weird.

This is probably the deepest field in the history of the World Cup. There weren't many surprises at all in qualifying, in the end, as a few stragglers righted the ship just in time to qualify, and there is only one dilettante – the Bosnians – making their debut at this particular beaux arts ball. Lots of seasoned vets in the field. If the tourney weren't being held in Brazil, it would be a wide open race.

Even so, assuming that Seleção are going to run away with it is risky. Sure, they looked pretty dominant at the Confed Cup in June – but this ain't the Confed Cup. And Brazil has long memories when it comes to football – recollections of 1950 will rear their ugly heads between now and June. Seleção may be the overwhelming favourite, and deservedly so, but they also face overwhelming pressure.

Group A
Beast: Having drawn the weakest of the African sides, and two talented sides who didn't play worth a damn this year, Brazil has a nice warm up here for the games that matter later in the tournament.
Yeast: It's not clear to me whether Mexico's 9:3 aggregate over New Zealand means that El Tri have righted the ship, or if the All-Whites really are that bad. Maybe some of both. Mexico's flavor of the month is coach Miguel Herrera, who did the audacious and left his European stars off the playoff roster, loading it up with guys who'd played for his Club América team which was sitting top of the MX table. Not making it to Brazil would've been a disaster, and maybe the Mexicans are moving in the right direction, or maybe they're the Yeast in this group only because ...
Least: ... the Croatians are a mess. They started the year ranked #9 in FIFA (pfft, whatever, but we'll get to that in a minute), lost twice to the Scots, got manhandled by the Belgians in Zagreb, barely qualified for the playoff, got their coach fired, and did a lot of fancy passing in their playoff with Iceland but rarely looked all that menacing. They have a lot of talent and some time to turn it around, but I don't think Seleção are going to be all that worried on opening day in São Paulo.
Feast: Samuel Eto-ó claimed there was a plot not to pass him the ball during the World Cup playoff between Cameroon and Tunisia. The Indomitable Lions always put the fun in dysfunctional. Given Eto-ó's claim, It's ironic they're drawn with Croatia in this group, since it's been surmised many times that the Croats and Serbs wouldn't pass the ball to each other on Yugoslavia's 1990 World Cup team which lost in the quarterfinals, a super-talented team that wasted a golden opportunity.

Group B
Beast: Whomever wins the game on June 13 in Salvador between Spain and The Netherlands. That the two finalists from 2010 are meeting in their first match of the tournament and are grouped together can be attributed to FIFA's dumb decision to seed the pots for this tourney using the FIFA rankings, a fatally flawed system which does a fine job of comparing apples to oranges. The Dutch and the Italians, both international football royalty, both wound up being #2 seeds, whereas Belgium, Colombia and Switzerland were #1s even though none of them have ever done much of anything on the world stage. Both sides have reason to feel like they got jobbed with this draw.
Yeast: Chile also reason to think they've gotten screwed over here by the ping pong balls. A good team, and a dangerous one, but maybe the odd one out here.
Least: Brazil. Clearly, whomever was in charge of rigging the draw did a shitty job, since Seleção will have to play whomever finishes 2nd in Group B. There are maybe only 4-5 teams capable of beating Seleção, and Spain and the Dutch are two of them.
Feast: Goal difference may be crucial in this group, particularly if the Spain-Netherlands game turns cautious and winds up a draw. As such, Australia is likely to get scored upon a lot. But given that they lost back-to-back 6:0 friendlies this year to Brazil and France, the Socceroos are obviously well-practiced in that.

Group C
Beast: If Côte d'Ivoire can't advance out of this group, they may never advance. In terms of talent, they've probably got more than anyone else in what is a pretty lousy group.
Yeast: Another beneficiary of the strange FIFA ranking system is Colombia, who have snuck all the way up to #5 without anyone figuring out quite how they've done it. This is a good team but one which may be lacking in experience. I'm fundamentally a fan of any team called Los Cafeteros, as I am a coffee junkie, and the Colombians should be fun to watch.
Least: I believe the success of Japan in reaching the 16s in 2010 had as much to do with their mediocre group as anything. Great technicians, the Japanese, and you certainly don't want to give them too many opportunities from set pieces, but they lack pace and athleticism.
Feast: If there is one team which always seems to benefit from fortuitous draws, it's Greece, who always seem to land in cushy groups full of dead weight and overrated sides, and then promptly bore all their opponents into submission. Even though they showed a bit more attacking flair in their playoff win over Romania, this is still a plodding team that tries to win every game 1:0. But the World Cup embodies the Peter Principle – you rise to the level of your own incompetence. The Greeks have never won a World Cup match, and I don't imagine that's going to happen here, either.

Group D
Beast: I think that if you're the Italians, you're feeling not that bad about this group. Two tough games, to be sure, but the Italians usually thrive in such tough games, and Mario Balotelli gives them a game-changer up front like they've never had before.
Yeast: Uruguay did what they usually do in qualifying – coast and do just enough to make it into the field. La Celeste flirted without disaster for a bit in CONMEBOL before going on a win streak, snagging a playoff spot and whacking the Jordanians around. Uruguay's 4th place finish in 2010 was a Jekyll and Hyde routine, with the yin of the stylish and popular Diego Forlán counterbalanced by enfant terrible Luis Suárez, who has since managed to provide even more reason to dislike him, and then even more reason still, since when he played goalkeeper in 2010. (And in his defense, anyone who says they wouldn't have done what he did in that situation in 2010, with all that was on the line, is a damn liar.) He's also fucking brilliant on the pitch, which is why anyone puts up with his shit. Now that Forlán is a supporting character, this is Suárez' team and they'll go as far as he can get them.
Least: It is always impossible for England to meet their fanbase's expectation. They got a tough draw here, being grouped with Italy and Uruguay, and it's especially going to be a challenge playing the Italians in Manaus. Nothing in Europe could prepare you to play a game in 85% humidity in the middle of a tropical rain forest. England's a middling side at the moment, but the draw is something else for Fleet St. to bitch about. Yeah, it's a tough draw, but having an E.A.S.Y. draw didn't help them much in 2010, now did it?
Feast: I have no doubt that Costa Rica will play hard, but the Ticos are outmanned in this group and definitely caught a bad break.

Group E
Beast: The French were a disgrace in South Africa in 2010, as they quarreled amongst themselves, mutinied against their coach, staged a 1-day strike, had a player sent home, and brought the entirety of their federation into disrepute on their way to a last-place finish. Some of the same bad actors from four years ago are back, and this team still seems to have some bad Karma about it. That being said, they rose from the dead to beat Ukraine in the playoff, and getting drawn in this group was an absolute gift. They can't possibly mess this up, can they?
Yeast: I like Ecuador, but I would like them more if they could prove that they could win more consistently when away from the 9,000 ft. altitude of Quito. And for god's sake, don't do this again!
Least: The Swiss have become the poster child for hating on FIFA, as the goofy FIFA rankings somehow placed this team in the Top 8 at the expense of clubs like the Dutch and the Italians. In truth, there has never been a good way to seed teams for the World Cup, and it's always been as much about reputation as anything else. But the ranking system still needs some refinement. It's a flawed system, much like the BCS. I'm not sure how the Swiss got to be in the Top 8 other than to beat up on what was a pretty bad qualifying group. That said, sleep on the Swiss at your peril – their young talent which won a Juniors World Championship seems to be maturing nicely.
Feast: I read a quote recently that read, "if you don't see Honduras in your group, then you're probably your group's Honduras." C'mon, be nice to the big H! They've got some nice skill players, and the H showed they could win a tough game by beating El Tri at Azteca in The Hex. I'm down with the H and I hope they steal some points here and there.

Group F
Beast: Most of this year's talk about the draw being rigged seems to be coming out of Argentina. Why Brazil would ever do a favour for their fiercest rival is beyond me, but this draw is just stupid easy for them, as they have pretty much a cake walk all the way to 8s. The great concern for La Albiceleste, of course, is the health of Lionel Messi. They can win this group without the greatest player in the world, but I don't think they can win the World Cup without him.
Yeast: The most fun team in Brazil to watch will almost certainly be the newcomers. Bosnia have been knocking on the door for a few years but kept just missing out. They believe that the best defense is to score a lot of goals, and they just keep throwing guys forward all the time. They have some depth issues, however, and playing no defense tends to lead to quick exits.
Least: For his tireless and outstanding efforts in guiding his team to an African Cup of Nations victory this year, Nigeria coach Stephen Keshi was rewarded by not being paid for several months. Such is the nature of the Super Eagles, who are constantly beset by financial problems and political in-fighting. They continue to be their own worst enemies. After crashing out in comically awful fashion in 2010, and enduring all sorts of internal turmoil and strife, the Super Eagles may finally be getting it together here – which is why you should, oh, PAY THE DAMN COACH!
Feast: Speaking of politics and strife, you can usually count on both to hold back the progress of the team from the football-mad nation of Iran, which really should dominate the Asian game but fails to do so.

Group G
Beast: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, the U.S. Any of these four teams can win the group.
Yeast: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, the U.S. Any of these four teams can finish second.
Least: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, the U.S. Any of these four teams can finish third.
Feast: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, the U.S. Any of these four teams can finish last.
Obligatory home(r) country notes: this is probably the toughest group in the history of the World Cup, not only because of the quality of the four teams, but also because of the travel. The U.S. got the dreaded G4 draw slot, which means they have games in Natal, Manaus and Recife – basically spanning the sprawling width of the South American continent. The U.S. got screwed in the draw ... but they were the most likely to get screwed, since they were the best team in a pot full of CONCACAF and Asian sides. It's precisely because teams like the U.S. exist that a 'Group of Death' can happen. And I was serious before when I said the U.S. can, in fact, win this group. For all the flair and snazz and talent and likability of the 'new' Germans, they still haven't won anything. I think the U.S. can get points from Portugal, who have Ronaldo, of course, but who also have some pretty ordinary players and who looked a bit uneven in qualifying. The Ghana game is a problem, because Ghana has attacking talent but also plays great defense. The U.S. should approach all of this from the standpoint of figuring out how to win the group. Forget 'survive and advance.' Go out and win the damn thing. If you do that, the path – 2nd place in group H in the 16s, then someone from the E/F quadrant in the 8s – really isn't all that bad. The venues aren't ideal, but the U.S. is probably better equipped to handle the humidity than their European foes. I do think they have a shot here. Obviously, I'd prefer they were paired with the Swiss, but this isn't as impossible as it first seems. It's hard, but unless you're Argentina, this tourney is gonna be hard.

Group H
Beast: They seem to be growing great young players on trees in Belgium all of a sudden. When this team's starting XI is healthy, they are an absolute terror. These ain't your slow, stiff, tight, defensive-minded Belgians of yesteryear. And they got a nice draw here, although they're probably not crazy about playing whomever stumbles out alive from Group G in the 16s.
Yeast: The Russians host the 2018 World Cup, of course, which will be fascinating in that they are traditionally a dominant home side and will thus immediately be considered a threat to win it, but their performance leading up to, and during, major tournaments has always been generally uneven and rather perplexing. Russia showed some consistency this time around in winning their European group, and they always have guys that can score.
Least: Algeria seems to have an Italian sort of knack for getting results. They aren't the most flashy team, but they found their way through African qualifying, and then capitalized on some moments of sloppy Burkinabe defending to win their playoff on away goals when Burkina Faso seemed to have more talent on the pitch. I don't expect the Fennec Foxes to advance, but they won't be embarrassed, either.
Feast: South Korea made the 16s four years ago, and are usually good for some fast-paced, high energy football. But they didn't play very well in Asian qualifying at all, and they need to turn it around here soon.

So who lost? Well, the U.S., of course. Group G is insane. Mexico can't be too happy. The trios of good teams in B and D aren't thrilled – and neither are the bottom feeders in B and D, who risk getting run over.

I managed to pick a Spain-Netherlands final, 3/4 of the semifinalists and 7/8 of the quarterfinalists right four years ago – but doing so meant picking stuff that was completely nuts, like Paraguay winning their group and the Brazilians crashing out in the quarters. My immediate thought here in 2014 is semis of Brazil v. Germany and Italy v. Argentina. But that's too obvious. Usually something weird happens along the way. If it didn't, it wouldn't be any fun.